On Thursday Night, I will be sauntering over to my buddy’s house with a bowl of dip, a bag of chips, seven bet slips, four fantasy teams, and three DFS lineups to watch the first NFL game of the season. 

What’s At Stake?

Usually, the NFL tries to save some of the biggest matchups for later in the season, but the kickoff game is sure to have playoff implications from the get-go. The game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. It’s the reigning Super Bowl Champions against the reigning MVP.

The Bet I Like the Most

Lamar Jackson is a great quarterback. He has two MVPs in his short career and regularly finds himself in a playoff run. However, Patrick Mahomes has been a thief of joy for the city of Baltimore. Last year’s 17-10 AFC Championship loss was the fifth matchup between the two, and Jackson has just a 1-4 record in the series.

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For some reason, these are the games where Jackson tries to win it in the air as opposed to using his playmaking ability to get the edge. He averaged 26.5 passing attempts with a 67.2% completion percentage during the regular season. And after the game, the Ravens were highly criticized for going away from the run game and forcing Jackson to pass it 37 times with only a 54.1% completion percentage.

The Ravens also added Derrick Henry to the backfield, signaling their desire to establish the run again, but the Chiefs spent the offseason building an offense that can attack downfield with speedy wide receivers by adding Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and building up one of the best offensive lines in the league. Despite wanting to run the ball, the Ravens may be forced to throw it again to keep up, putting them in an uncomfortable position. I think Patrick Mahomes keeps sucking the life out of Baltimore, and the Chiefs win easily.

Pick: Kansas City -2.5/3

A Prop For Sad Ravens Fans

Before Ravens fans enter the pit of misery, there’s plenty to look forward to this year. But it’s not your wide receiver room. Rashod Bateman still hasn’t progressed, Zay Flowers doesn’t have the size or route tree to be a true number one, and your WR3 is Nelson Agholor???

So, the Ravens will need to lean on their tight ends for some size in the red zone. There’s no value in Mark Andrews to score with +155 odds. Let’s go with their other highly talented tight end, who could be on the field in the red zone with the Ravens trying to call some play action out of 12 personnel.

Pick: Isaiah Likely Anytime TD (+500)