This week we’re going to dive right into the picks. If you want my attempt at being somewhat entertaining, check out my Thanksgiving Food and Football article: https://thehotgarbage.com/uncategorized/ranking-nfl-playoff-teams-as-thanksgiving-foods-a-festive-football-feast

We are coming off a 3/4 week if you got off of the 49ers given the injuries. Let’s stay hot

GB -3 vs MIA

There’s tons of data on favorites and the public winning on Thanksgiving. Obviously GB is the favorite and I imagine they will be the public side as well. I’m a little nervous that I haven’t bought into Green Bay as much as everyone seemingly has, while Miami has been sneakily very good for several weeks now, regardless of public perception. That being said, in most advanced metrics GB is the much better team and I’ll take my chances fading Tua in freezing cold weather. Packers -3.

IND -2.5 @ NE

I keep hearing about how good Drake Maye is (which he may be) but he still doesn’t seem to put up many points. NE is not a very strong running team and I think the Colts are better than what they showed last week. Richardson dealt with a bad drop in the end zone and I expect a nice offensive game from the Colts. My biggest hesitation is that teams don’t seem to ever cover after playing the Lions, but the Patriots should be bad enough to buck this trend. Ind -2.5.

HOU -4 @ JAX

This line indicates to me that Lawrence should be back, I still don’t really care. I have no clue how Dougy P still has his job but one team knows their season is over, one team needs to figure it out quickly to be viewed as a serious contender. I expect Houston to put up some big numbers and win this game by over a field goal. HOU -4.

LAR -2.5 @ NO

The Saints are another team I’m going to continue to fade if the books aren’t going to act like they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. This is mainly an injury play, one team (even off a bye) is very banged up, while the Rams are getting healthier. McVay coming off a loss is covering at 59% and I expect the running game to be able to get going against New Orleans. LAR -2.5.

Den -5.5 vs Cle

5 favorites, what could go wrong? The Browns played their Super Bowl last week. This Denver team seems legit. I know that professional money is on Denver and we’re looking to hop off the Jameis train on the road in altitude. Let’s go with Den -5 on MNF.

If I didn’t put this Denver game in, I would have put in Carolina +6. Have a happy Thanksgiving and enjoy football all week!