Ah yes, we’ve finally reached Thanksgiving. A time when you can gather ‘round the dinner table and gorge yourself on delicious turkey and stuffing while enjoying football with your loved ones. Or, in other cases, you can delve into the football slate and ignore your family. Either way, enjoy yourself.

The problem we have this week is that these games may be trash. As if double-digit spreads and backup quarterbacks weren’t enough to fill your bellies, we get a Black Friday game to steal your attention further away. But fear not; I have picks for all four games to ensure you get your fill. Whether you’re eating a deep-fried turkey or waiting in line for the store early Friday morning (do people still do that?), we’ll have plenty to sweat this holiday break.

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving to all of you.

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below each article!

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-10), O/U 48.5

I loved the Colts vs. the Lions last week. I thought they could win the game. The Texans had them backed into a corner and couldn’t put them away, either. The only team who managed to top the Lions this year was the Buccaneers in Week 2. Every week they’ve been boat racing teams and winning without a shred of doubt.

So why the hell do I like the Bears in this game? The market agrees with me too as the spread opened 10.5 and keeps getting steamed in their direction. The Colts run a similar defensive system as the Bears, but they lack the talent that the Bears have on that side of the ball. Indianapolis planned to keep everything in front of them and to limit explosive plays. That led to the Lions running all over them. If the Bears deploy the same plan with their top-ranked run defense, I think they have a shot to fall within the number here. 

Pick: Chicago +10

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), O/U 37.5

Tommy DeVito did little to inspire confidence in the Giants in his first start against the Bucs. But he likely won’t be playing in this game due to a forearm injury. Drew Lock will get the start against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. The line for this game should be Cowboys -2.5 which is a clear edge on the Giants. But, this handicap goes beyond the product on the field. If you think Drew Lock can get something out of this opportunity, then you should take the Giants to cover. But from everything I’ve seen and heard from the Giants’ locker room, it appears they’ve given up on this season. I can’t recommend you wager your hard-earned cash on a team that has given up.

Pick: Dallas -3.5

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5), O/U 47.5

The weather is taking front and center on Sunday night. Temperatures are going to be in the 20s in Green Bay, and that’s not a situation where Tua Tagovailoa or the Dolphins have ever thrived in before. Tua is 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread in these types of temperatures. Despite his determination to break these narratives, I don’t think it’ll happen this time around. The Packers need to stay on course in a tight NFC playoff race, and the Dolphins’ season is circling the drain. It may be too little, too late, and too cold.

Pick: Green Bay -3.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), O/U 42.5

We’re all waiting for this Chiefs team to break out. We thought it might come against a lowly Panthers team last week, but that game came down to the final minutes. The Chiefs have been squeaking out close games all season to the point where they’ve reached a 10-1 record without totally dominating someone. Raiders HC Antonio Pierce loves to play a conservative style of football that involves playing defense and kicking field goals. Aidan O’Connell will also be back in the lineup for the Raiders, who is probably the safest option they have overall at quarterback. I don’t expect this one to get too loose, so I’ll take the points.

Pick: Las Vegas +12.5