The article’s title says it’s week four even though the season just started. A reminder there are 17 games now, so we’re not even remotely close to the season being over. In years past, I would be freaking out because we’re already a quarter of the way through the season. Let me be clear, I am NOT freaking out. There’s still so much football left, and the season’s not over for months. Shut up!

If you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below!

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts, O/U 40.5

The Steelers are doing that thing again where they win a bunch of games, but no one thinks they’re a good team. On the other hand, the Colts have been a disaster on offense to begin the season. And it’s hard not to point the blame at Anthony Richardson because HC Shane Steichen is scheming these players open on offense, and Tony Rich is just missing them. 

However, the Steelers are dealing with some injuries on their defensive line, which should allow Indy to move the ball while taking fewer risks. And the Colts’ secondary is bad. George Pickens, after dealing with Asante Samuel Jr., Pat Surtain II, and AJ Terrell to start the season, is in for a big game.

Pick: Over 40.5 Total Points

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5), O/U 43.5

Everyone is expecting Jordan Love to make his return in this game. He got in limited practices last week and this week, suggesting he’s healthy enough to play. When he played the Eagles in Brazil to start the season, he torched the Philadelphia defense, and Green Bay looked like one of the most complete offenses in the league. That taste is still sitting in all of our mouths, but I think people may be overlooking how truly terrible Philly’s defense is.

This number already slightly alludes to Love’s return, but when he’s announced as active, I think the number will go to 3. And that’s when we swoop in and take the Vikings. 

Pick: Wait for +3 and take Minnesota

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6), O/U 45.5

This is a draw-a-line-in-the-sand game for me. The Jags are dead team walking after getting obliterated by the Bills on Monday Night Football. But the Texans are dealing with a myriad of injuries to their skill players on offense after getting dominated by the Vikings last week.

The Texans have yet to beat a team by more than one score yet this season. In fact, of their ten regular season wins last season, seven of them were by seven or fewer points. The Texans need to prove to me they can dominate a bad team in this spot, or I’m going to have to reconsider if they belong in the upper echelon of teams in the NFL.

Pick: Houston -6

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), O/U 42.5

The Falcons have all the cool, shiny, pieces on their offense. Top 10 picks at RB, WR, and TE. A proven commodity at QB. But their offense has yet to click so far this season. I think as the weeks go on, it’ll become more seamless. But. New Orleans’ offense and defense are both firing to start the season.

Pick: New Orleans Moneyline

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (-3), O/U 40.5

The Bears’ defense will be the strongest unit on the field, but that’s only because the Rams’ offense is held together by chewing gum and scotch tape.

Don’t make this one too complicated. You can take Matt Eberf-lose, or you can take Sean McVay getting 3 points. 

Pick: Los Angeles +3

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 43.5

The Eagles are favored on the road despite missing A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. The Eagles were also a small favorite on the road in Tampa in the wild-card round last season. They lost that game 32-9. You do the math.

Pick: Tampa Bay Moneyline

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 46.5

Just when the Bengals thought they hit rock bottom, it can get so much lower. They now have to go on the road to Carolina and face their former lord and savior, Andy Dalton.

I would monitor the health of Panthers WR Diontae Johnson in this one. They’ll already be without Adam Thielen, and they aren’t necessarily a roster overflowing with talent. If he’s good to go, then I think these teams will have no problem moving the ball on each other’s total garbage defenses.

Pick: Over 46.5 Total Points

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (-7.5), O/U 39.5

Bo Nix and company shocked the Buccaneers last week to eliminate everyone in their survivor pool. But he’ll have a much harder time playing quarterback against this Jets defensive front.

On the flip side, this Aaron Rodgers Jets team will play a smart offense that doesn’t turn the ball over. They’ll handle bad teams quite easily, but it remains to be seen how well they hold up against a good team. But the Broncos are not a good team.

Pick: New York -7.5

Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals (3.5), O/U 49.5

Jayden Daniels had his coming out party on Monday Night Football, as he downed a desperate Bengals team. And I think he’ll continue to look good on offense as his OC Kliff Kingsbury faces his former team.

However, the Commanders might have the 31st-ranked defense.

Pick: Arizona -3.5 (I’d love a 3)

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers (-10), O/U 40.5

This game makes me feel nothing. The glimmer of hope has fallen off of the Pats after getting smacked around by the Jets on Thursday Night Football. But, the 49ers are so injured that I don’t trust them to cover a double-digit spread. If this game never happened, I think everyone would be okay with that.

But if you’re forcing me to pick something, I would say leave me alone. Christian McCaffrey is in Germany ruining my fantasy season, and the Patriots tortured me as a Bills fan for nearly 20 years. I have to pick something for the article? Seriously? Fine. Fullback touchdown.

Pick: Kyle Juszczyk Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5), O/U 36.5

Between this game and the Patriots/49ers game, it might be a nice afternoon to go apple-picking. But if you’re stuck inside because of the hurricane, then fine, go ahead and watch this game. You’re not going to like it though.

This week, Raiders HC Antonio Pierce mentioned that he’s not committed to Gardner Minshew at quarterback long-term. If the Browns defense starts messing with Gardner, he could see the bench in the second half. Even then, I think the Raiders take a run-heavy approach in this game.

Pick: Gardner Minshew Under 31.5 Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 39.5

It feels crazy that a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert has a total in the 30s. But the Chiefs offense isn’t the explosive unit it once was when they had Tyreek Hill. And Justin Herbert may miss the game entirely after reaggravating his ankle injury in last week’s game.

I would grab a Chiefs -7 ticket on the off chance Herbert misses the game. But if you think he’s going to play I would stay away completely. If you have a healthy Herbert going up against Mahomes, I would then lean to the over.

Pick: Kansas City -7, Over 39.5 Total Points (If Herbert plays)