Halloween time without children in your early 30s feels like you’re in the waiting room for the holiday to be fun again. My wife and I stayed in, made some chicken, and watched Thursday Night Football. I don’t have a costume, because I’m not going to a party. I have yard work to do this weekend.

But the one true essence of Halloween that I still get before we start having kids of our own is through the NFL. When I’m watching two teams locked into a rock fight, battling to keep their seasons alive, and then the camera cuts to a grown man in a chicken suit with a tall can of Miller Lite, I feel something again. So, here’s to seeing every hilarious costume wedged into a stadium seat this Sunday.

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Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5), O/U 46.5

Every time the Ravens lose outright as a heavy favorite, it’s during a 1 pm game against a lesser AFC opponent. That’s exactly what happened last week when they were upset by Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns. It was also the case when they dropped a head-scratching game against Gardner Minshew and the Las Vegas Raiders.

I don’t think this one will be an outright upset like the others, because I don’t know how Bo Nix can score for the Broncos if and when the Ravens shut down their rushing attack. But, that defense will give Lamar and Co. fits for most of the game.

Pick: Denver +9.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7), O/U 46.5

The Bengals have to play perfect football to have a shot to make the playoffs. And I think there’s a good chance this team is already looking ahead to Thursday Night when they have a divisional rematch with the Ravens. They know they have to win, but they could get hit in the mouth by the Raiders when they least expect it.

Taking a good team by surprise has been Antonio Pierce’s MO as Head Coach of the Raiders. He can also make you sweat with his strong defensive line and conservative playcalling. He will always take the field goal, rather than turning over the ball on downs on a failed 4th and short. Raiders keep this one close.

Pick: Las Vegas +7

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5), O/U 37.5

There are two spots butting heads here and I don’t know which way to go. On one hand, the Patriots are in a letdown spot. They’re coming off a huge upset win over their division rival Jets, in which their backup quarterback had to lead them to victory. The magic tends to run out in your second game of this situation.

But if you believe in trends, the Titans played the Lions last week. Every team that has played the Lions this season failed to cover the spread or win outright in their next game. I don’t believe in trends like this one, but they can be fun to follow. At the end of the day, my gut is telling me that the Titans shouldn’t be 3.5-point favorites against anyone.

Pick: New England +3.5

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-6), O/U 48.5

Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have dominated the Dolphins in the Tua Era. That was on full display earlier in the season in a game that was overshadowed by another Tua concussion. The Bills offense should have no problem going up and down the field in this one against an underperforming Miami defense. 

I don’t doubt the Bills can cover the six-point spread in this one, but I think with another week with Tua back in the fold, we may get a better-than-average performance from Miami’s offense. And even if we don’t, we may be able to count on Buffalo for 40 points by themselves in this one.

Pick: Over 48.5 Total Points

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 43.5

Everyone remembers what happened the last time these two teams matched up. The Panthers put together the worst display of football anyone has ever seen. They made the New Orleans Saints look like the greatest show on turf. 

Since then, the Saints have looked like the third-worst team in the league. They haven’t been able to withstand the endless list of injuries they’ve encountered this season. But they’re starting to get a little healthier now. Derek Carr should bring life back to the offense, and the defense will be able to handle Bryce Young.

Pick: New Orleans -7, Or in a teaser

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 42.5

The Browns shocked the Ravens last week with Jameis Winston taking over under center for the injured Boogieman. But I think they come back down to Earth in this one with Harbaugh’s Chargers playing very disciplined defense.

The Chargers will run the ball, play above-average defense, and wait for Winston to make a mistake. Then they’ll keep their foot on the gas until there’s no more time on the clock. 

Pick: Los Angeles -1.5

Washington Commanders (-3.5) @ New York Giants, O/U 44.5

My spidey senses tell me that this is a trap spot off of the miracle Hail Mary throw for the Commanders last week. But if you look at that game, the Commanders outplayed the Bears nearly the entire time and they were “supposed” to win it, and the Bears almost snuck one passed them. 

The Giants are dead team walking to me. The defense is losing faith in the offense, which is why they seem so good for the majority of the game, and then pack it in once Daniel Jones spikes his 8th pass into the turf. These teams are in two different stratospheres now.

Pick: Washington -3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5), O/U 45.5

I set a reminder on my phone every week to remind me that this Eagles team isn’t what they appear to be. They’re covering up their early season ass performances with a soft schedule down the stretch, and yes that soft schedule includes the 3-5 Bengals. 

If the Jags completed the upset last week of the Packers, they would have breathed new life into their season, but they couldn’t get it done. Trevor Lawrence is quietly piecing together a solid season now that the spotlight is off of him. I’m not calling a full upset here, but the Jaguars can pass on this Eagles’ secondary.

Pick: Jacksonville +7.5

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (-2), O/U 44.5

The Bears need to win this one, and the Cardinals would really really like to win it. The Bears schedule is the hardest in the NFC going forward, with the Cardinals and the Patriots marked as two “must-win spots” over the next two weeks to stay in contention.

The Cardinals are trying to prove they’re legit here, with their whole division tied at slightly above or below mediocre. I think the Cardinals win, but I’m not confident enough in it to take the -2. Instead, I trust the Bears to shut down the passing game for Arizona, while they’re perfectly content to move the ball on the ground.

Pick: James Conner Over 68.5 Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams (-1) @ Seattle Seahawks, O/U 48.5

The Rams had their coming out party on Thursday Night Football last week against the Vikings. Now, they sport a healthy wide receiving core (except Puka Nacua might be hurt again), a strong youthful defense, and a legitimate shot to win the division after an injury-riddled start to the season.

I think the Rams keep this train rolling. People who bet numbers will say this is a sizable upgrade for the Rams in the market, and they’re right. But I think it’s warranted. I regret not taking a shot on some futures for them to win the division. 

Pick: Los Angeles -1

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Green Bay Packers, O/U 48.5

This season feels eerily similar to last year when an electric Lions offense with a questionable defensive secondary played Green Bay on Thanksgiving and got smacked in the mouth. The Lions are my pick to win the NFC, but this defense is not what it used to be when Aidan Hutchinson was in the lineup.

For Green Bay, I think Jordan Love will suit up on Sunday. Even though he’s hobbled, he’ll do enough to cover 3 points at home against a division rival. That number is too big for an underperforming Lions defense.

Pick: Green Bay +3

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