If my public school knowledge could serve me here, 17 is a prime number. You can’t divide it in half to get a whole number. Therefore, the NFL Season is not halfway over yet—not even close. But just before the halfway point of the school year, we take midterms. 

If you crush your midterm, it could set you up for the second half of the school year, even if you haven’t been performing well. If you’ve been stacking up good grades but mail it in on the midterm, you could struggle to finish the year with an A. Now replace school with football. Boom.

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Baltimore Ravens (-8,5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 44.5

At long last, the bad man is gone. Cleveland now knows what it feels like for those little people when Dorothy dropped a house on that witch. Jameis Winston returns to the quarterback position after years of being the designated pep talk guy and nothing else.

With Winston comes a change in play-callers in Cleveland as well. Ken Dorsey, known for ruining the Buffalo Bills last season, takes over the offense with Winston. He called pass plays at one of the highest rates in the league last season. With Nick Chubb still recovering and only averaging two yards per carry against a stout Ravens defense, the Browns could be slinging the pill around the yard this week. That means a lot of touchdowns, but it remains to be seen if the balls will be caught by the offense or defense.

I would play extreme outcomes in this game due to the volatility of Winston’s play. If you like the Ravens, buy them up to -13.5 or -16.5. If you like the Browns, just bet them to win, and that’s my pick for the headline.

Pick: Cleveland Moneyline

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-5), O/U 45.5

C.J. Stroud barely outlasted the Colts on the road when they played Week One, and the offense still struggles without standout receiver Nico Collins. But Stroud’s statistics at home are vastly better than when he’s on the road, which was also the case in his rookie season. I initially thought another year in the league would buck this trend, but it’s not true thus far.

Luckily, the Texans are at home, and that could indicate a better game out of Stroud. I don’t know if it will be good enough to cover a near touchdown against a division rival, but if the offense is functioning well, then Joe Mixon should have another big game. They go as he goes. He’s topped 100 yards rushing in his three healthy games this season, including 159 in their previous matchup.

Pick: Joe Mixon Over 77.5 Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 49.5

Both teams are in a weird travel spot here. The Packers are the road team, which normally is a disadvantage, but they spent the last two weeks at home piling up wins against the Cardinals and Texans. The Jaguars are the home team, which normally is an advantage, but they spent the last two weeks in London. I doubt they’ve had a decent meal the entire time. Beans for breakfast? Seriously?

I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams come out looking a little flat in this one, despite the offenses looking good in recent weeks. And this game is one of the higher point totals of the week.

Pick: Under 49.5

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (-11), O/U 44.5

This is a massive spread, and I would never take the Titans. They traded away DeAndre Hopkins to the evil empire and Calvin Ridley hasn’t been practicing all week. Even if they had wide receivers, they have no one to get the ball to them. Will Levis is injured and bad, and Mason Rudolph is healthy and bad.

Yet, somehow the Titans have gotten bet on in this game? The spread moved to 11 when news broke that Jameson Williams would be suspended two games for PEDs. But, I don’t know how the Titans even score a point in this game.

Pick: Detroit -11

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 45.5

The Bucs lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the same game last week, leaving a high-caliber offense without its top two receiving options. They also won’t have rookie running back Bucky Irving in their three-back rotation this week. All of these players have been key cogs in this Tampa Bay offense that ranks second in the league in total touchdowns scored and leads in the league in receiving touchdowns scored. 

Baker Mayfield has looked incredible, and I don’t think he’ll try to limit how much he throws the ball. Atlanta has an above-average defense but can be beaten if you have some playmakers. Mayfield will spend much of this game slinging the ball around to his backups, and I think the ball may end up in the defense’s hands one or two times.

Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions

New York Jets (-7) @ New England Patriots, O/U 40.5

The AFC East turned out to be one of the worst divisions in the league this season, and these two are the bigger reasons why. But one of the two wins the Jets have in their depressing 2-5 season is a rout of the Patriots on Thursday Night Football at home. These teams look a little different this time around. The Jets have acquired Davante Adams from the Raiders and fired their Head Coach Robert Saleh. The Patriots benched Jacoby Brissett in favor of their first-round rookie Drake Maye.

More time in this offense will allow Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers to get their groove back. And interim Head Coach Jeff Ulbrich’s defense doesn’t look like the top five unit Saleh has employed in recent years. With Drake Maye giving the Patriots offense a spark added into all of this, and I think this ugly game goes over the total.

Pick: Over 41.5 Total Points

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5), O/U 46.5

-3.5 is a wild number for a Dolphins’ offense that has looked terrible all season, even when Tua was under center. But, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have not won back-to-back games in nearly three years and they took care of the Chargers in Monday Night Football last week.

The headline that I’m burying here is that the Dolphins will get their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back after missing time with a concussion. This will help the entire offense function, and although everyone’s mind will go to the passing game, I think the running game will have the most success in this one. Raheem Mostert is the healthiest he’s been all year and went for 80 yards and 50 yards in his last two games. They’ll lean on the run game to limit the number of times Tua gets hit as well.

Pick: Raheem Mostert Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5), O/U 47.5

Both of these teams are huge letdowns this season, and they both need this win to keep themselves in the playoff conversation for their respective conferences. The Bengals have had success throwing the ball all season, which the Eagles have been struggling to defend. The Eagles have been pounding the rock all season, which the Bengals have been struggling to defend.

But if I had to pick what I’m most confident in, it’s that Saquon Barkley will pile up yards for the Eagles, and AJ Brown and Devonta Smith will help convert those opportunities into points. With the amount of scoring in this game, the 2.5 points don’t help you much as there’s a wide range of variable scores. Just give me Philly to win. 

Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline

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New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7), O/U 41.5

A promising season has completely unraveled for the New Orleans Saints. The best offense through two weeks has disappeared with Derek Carr on the shelf, Rashid Shaheed done for the season, and Chris Olave in and out of the lineup. They’ve also become the worst team in the league when defending the run. This means their time of possession tanks, and they can’t get any momentum going after giving up a lead. 

Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers are just fine. They can run the ball a little. Their defense is meh. They’re just bland. And with lightning bolts on powder blue jerseys, it feels like a crime to be this bland. But I expect them to run the ball and score as many points as they want. A seven-point spread is a lot for a meh defense to cover, so I’m just betting on the Chargers offense and ignoring the existence of the New Orleans Saints completely.

Pick: Chargers Team Total Over 23.5 Points

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Washington Commanders, O/U 43.5

This game was supposed to be an awesome showdown between the two Rookie of the Year favorites. Instead, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is trying to push through a rib injury to play. If he’s unable to go, Marcus Mariota will stand in for him in one of the league’s most explosive offenses.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the league as well. The problem is that I believe their offense to be slightly overrated. I think Caleb Williams will be good, but his offensive line is still terrible. People have forgotten this because they’ve been putting a whooping on bad teams for the past couple of weeks. I also wouldn’t overlook how good the Commanders’ defense has been under

So if the Math is correct here, (Injured QB+Underrated Defense) + (Overrated Offense/Good Defense)^1.5-pi/0 = Under.

Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 41.5

The Raiders are the last team to beat the Chiefs and Ravens. They’re also the only team to lose to the Panthers and the Browns. That’s just a fun stat. 

The Chiefs have tended to overlook the Raiders in the past which allowed them to steal an important game last season on Christmas. After that game, they smoked cigars in the locker room and played with a Pat Mahomes Kermit the Frog Puppet. Kansas City’s elite defense won’t overlook them this time. They’ve also got a quarterback room of Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder.

Pick: Las Vegas Team Total Under 15.5 Points

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (-10.5), O/U 40.5

Let’s end this article with a bang! Or, in this case, a dull fart. The Broncos offense shouldn’t be double-digit favorites against any NFL team. But this week, they play a varsity football team from North Carolina. I can’t take them in good faith to cover this number, and the Panthers to score any points at all. This game could end 7-0 or 24-3. All I know is that the Broncos will win. If you’re still in a Survivor pool, pick Denver this week.

Pick: Spend Some Time With Your Family

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