I live for Octobers like these, man. We’ve got two elimination games in the MLB playoffs as a nice little appetizer. Then we’re buckling down for one of the best College Football slates imaginable. And then, we’re topping it off with the meat and potatoes of the NFL season.

It’s a great time to be a dude who loves sports. And dudes everywhere this weekend will be talking sports with other dudes. If you dudes want to bet on sports, check out my article below, dude. I’ll give a pick for every Sunday afternoon game, bruh. If you’re picking up what I’m putting down, lock in your bet with the widgets below, dude.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 41.5

It looks like another week of closing my eyes and picking which NFC South team is supposed to be better! Baker Mayfield continues to play like a top-tier quarterback while the defense allows teams to creep in the back door.

But that door will be slammed shut with rookie QB Spencer Rattler taking over for the injured Derek Carr in New Orleans. Todd Bowles is going to blitz his silly little ass off and cause hell for the rookie. Officially, I’ll list this pick as the Bucs to cover, but I think they win by a few scores. I would buy it up to -6.5.

Pick: Tampa Bay -3.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers (-5), O/U 47

Two words; Get Right Spot.

The longer it’s been since Jordan Love hurt his knee, the healthier he’s bound to be. The defense isn’t awesome, but they have the serendipity factor. They’re just in the right spot at the right time to get a game-sealing turnover. Xavier McKinney has gotten an interception in every game this season.

On the flip side, the Cardinals’ offense looks elite for the first drive and then stumbles around until halftime where they get to go into the locker room and draw up another scripted drive. I like Green Bay by a bunch.

Pick: Green Bay -5

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5), O/U 42.5

Here’s a challenge: name three Colts offensive players that are starting this week. With studs like Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor not projected to play this week, their backups, Josh Downs and Trey Sermon, still find themselves on the injury report. And what the hell does Shane Steichen do with Anthony Richardson when Joe Flacco looks like the better option for this offense under center?

Meanwhile, the Titans are going through their own identity crisis. The run game looks relatively solid but they cannot move the ball through the air. They were able to dink and dunk their way to a win with Mason Rudolph, but can Will Levis play it safe to the point where he can raise the ceiling of this team’s offense without a backbreaking turnover?

One thing I know for sure, the run game is solid.

Pick: Tony Pollard Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9), O/U 42.5

It was a great time for a bye week for the Philadelphia Eagles. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are both practicing in full again, giving them a clean bill of health for the first time since Week Two. They may show signs of rust, but that’s okay when you’re playing the Cleveland Browns.

At this point, Kevin Stefanski might keep starting Deshaun Watson every week, so he can continue to embarrass himself on a National scale. Then, he’ll lose so many games that the Browns will be drafting a quarterback in the top five of next year’s draft. 

Pick: Eagles -9

Houston Texans (-7) @ New England Patriots, O/U 37.5

The Texans’ victory last week against the Buffalo Bills did not come without consequence. CJ Stroud threw a rocket so deep to Nico Collins that he ran out of his hamstring. The offense sputtered without him in the second half against a less-than-stellar Bills defense.

Now, they face a Patriots team whose trouble hasn’t come on defense, as they sport an above-average secondary. Rookie Drake Maye is getting his first career start, and I’m betting on him being able to move the ball enough to stay within a full touchdown at home.

Pick: New England +7

Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), O/U 51.5

I feel like a grump when I step up to a game like this, featuring two elite quarterbacks leading explosive offenses, and say I like the under. Unders are gross. I want to see points. I’d love to see points. But these two teams still want to run the ball. They also feature a Ravens’ top defense against the Commanders’ revamped unit under new Head Coach Dan Quinn. 

Pick: Under 51.5 Total Points

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Denver Broncos, O/U 35.5

Hand up, I forgot the Chargers were a team since they were on a bye. Seems like everyone else in the market did too, by making them a three-point favorite on the road. I have the Chargers as a middling defense at best.

The Broncos’ defense is the top unit on the field, and they can put Pat Surtain II on whomever they feel like shutting down at any given moment. As long as Bo Nix plays safe, conservative, mistake-free football, the Broncos will win.

Pick: Denver Moneyline

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 36.5

The defensive injuries stuck out in Pittsburgh’s gut-wrenching loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers couldn’t stop the Cowboys from moving the ball downfield late in the game.

The defense was, however, opportunistic in the big moments. And with Aidan O’Connell throwing the ball, I’d expect them to get some more timely turnovers. I’d love it if I could get a number under 3, but I’ll take the 3 if we never get there. 

Pick: Pittsburgh -3

Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 46.5

People love to talk about Andy Dalton coming into a team and adding a spark immediately on offense. The entire team started playing like a more complete unit with him under center.

What people don’t love to talk about is how the Andy Dalton effect tends to wear off after a couple of games. And, the Falcons offense is finally clicking to the point where they can move the ball however they want on you. Falcons win big here.

Pick: Atlanta -6 (try to get 5.5)

Detroit Lions( -3) @ Dallas Cowboys, O/U 52.5

This game is going to rule. And I’m not a math guy, but something about this number seems a little off to me. These two teams played in Dallas late last season. The Cowboys were 5.5-point favorites. Sure, Dallas got a little worse in the offseason, while Detroit probably got a little better. But, to go from 5.5 points on one side to 3 points on the other is a massive, ginormous, mammoth move.

I hate pulling for the Cowboys as much as anyone else does. But the numbers are screaming at me, and it’s late, and my wife is asleep in the other room.

Pick: Dallas +3

And remember, if you like my picks or you hate my guts and want to fade me, lock your picks in with the widgets below each game!