Let me preface this article by saying that betting on Week 18 in the NFL is often a fool’s errand. The motivation for each team has changed, with some jockeying for playoff positioning while others are trying to secure a better pick in the draft. Some players have incentives they are trying to hit, but it’s dangerous to correlate them to betting on their player props. NFL games are still random sequences of events, and just because a player needs a certain amount of yardage or touchdowns to get a payday, that doesn’t mean it is a fait accompli.

I will not be going through every game for the weekend like I usually do. If there is a game where I have a pick, it will be covered below. But to cover each game this week and commit to a firm edge would be disingenuous and poor gambling discipline. You can still find plenty of value this week, but be very cautious shelling out your cold, hard cash on some of these contests. 

If you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below!

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-20.5), O/U 41.5

The Ravens can clinch the division with a win vs the Browns as 20.5-point favorites. This gives some clear motivations for the Ravens, both to secure a home game in the playoffs and to beef up Lamar Jackson’s MVP resume in a stand-alone game. The Browns are packing it in on the season and will be rolling out Bailey Zappe as the quarterback. I don’t disagree with the spread despite it being three scores. But if you look at the situation, I think there could be a shred of value on the underdog. If the Browns come out as flat as they usually do, I could see the Ravens go up three scores and put the starters on ice. Zappe adds an unknown variable to the offense that was able to operate with Jameis Winston. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is not a quarterback capable of commanding a league-average offense, but Zappe could give them the gentlest kickstart to fall within the number with Jackson and Henry on the sidelines.

Pick: Cleveland +20.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 48.5

Even if the Ravens lock up the AFC North before kickoff, there’s still plenty to play for in this game. The Steelers have clinched a playoff spot, but if they win, they will clinch the 5-seed. If the Ravens win early, the 5-seed will start the playoffs against a limping Houston Texans team, and the 6-seed will have a much tougher assignment going on the road in Baltimore. The Bengals need to win this game and losses from the Dolphins and Broncos to punch their ticket to the playoffs. So, I expect a tight, full-effort, playoff-styled atmosphere for this game. If that’s the case, give me the under between two teams who could turn this game into a rock fight.

Pick: Under 48.5 Total Points

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers, O/U 41.5

There isn’t a lot on the line for this game, but I see it as an opportunity based on what each team has put on the field recently. The Bears’ defense has completely packed it in down the stretch, and many teams have been able to run up the score on them. The Packers ran up the score against a lesser opponent in the Saints two weeks ago because they are trying to establish more balance in their offense prior to their playoff run. The starters will be in this game because there is a chance for the Packers to get the 6-seed with a win. Their defense also has been suspect against formidable opponents, and I wouldn’t doubt that the Bears try to showcase Caleb Williams one last time this season. And if they don’t, the Packers might put up 42 points on their own.

Pick: Over 41.5 Total Points

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5), O/U 43.5

As was apparent by their demolition by the previously mentioned Packers, the Saints have thrown in the towel this season. They’ve been operating with third and fourth-string quarterbacks, with an interim Head Coach and injured defense. The Bucs need a win to secure the NFC South division title and a spot in the playoffs. A win could even propel them to the 3-seed. The Bucs offense has exploded against lesser defenses throughout the year, and Baker Mayfield doesn’t take his foot off of the brake in these spots. I think the Bucs run them out of the stadium en route to an NFC South title.

Pick: Tampa Bay -13.5

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -1.5, O/U 36.5

I disagree completely with the line in this game. The Texans have nothing to play for, as they are the 4-seed in the AFC no matter the outcomes of Sunday’s games. But the Titans are horrible. They’ll be starting Will Levis in this game, and he has proven he is capable of losing to anyone. The Texans are limping into the playoffs, and I think they take this opportunity as a dress rehearsal for the playoffs. They need to put together a good performance to instill confidence in the team and to work out any last-minute kinks before hosting Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, or Baltimore. The Titans also have a direct benefit in draft positioning if they lose the game.

Pick: Houston Moneyline

Los Angeles Chargers (-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 41.5

Although I think handicapping these games based on motivation and incentives can be dangerous, I would be remiss if I didn’t bring up the situation surrounding this game. If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday Night, then the Chargers can clinch the 5-seed with a win in this game. This would mean going to Houston instead of Baltimore in the first round. Right now, the line on this game is a halfway number. If the Bengals win, you’re likely to see steam push this spread out to 6.5 or 7. If the Steelers win, I don’t think the favorite will flip, but people will bet against the Chargers with motivation becoming less of a factor. Either way, I think the Chargers will come out and cover at least the four on Sunday despite the motivation. So, if you think the Bengals will win Sunday, you should take this number right now. If you think the Steelers will win, you still probably get a good performance from the Chargers with Jim Harbaugh at the helm.

Pick: Los Angeles -4