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We’ve got one week left of regular season games, and contenders have passed their tests and pretenders have failed theirs. Regular-season showdowns aren’t do or die like the postseason is, but they give us a pretty good picture of who’s Super Bowl title material and who’s not.

We take a look at the teams with the shortest odds to win Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans in February and why you should consider laying down money on some teams (the Treasure) and not others (the Trash).

Odds are from Caesars.

Chiefs +350, Treasure: Yeah, we get it, Mahomes is the best QB, Reid is the best head coach, Spagnuolo is the best DC, yadda yadda yadda. All true of course. But consider that Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs, with 41 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions. The only way KC doesn’t three-peat is if Sir Patrick has some sort of meltdown (ala 2022 vs the Bengals).

Lions +450, Treasure: Jared Goff has 20 TD passes and one INT over his past seven games. He’s led routs, he’s led comebacks. Yes, the former No. 1 draft pick is looking great, but it’s still undetermined if he can replicate his amazing regular-season performance in the playoffs. He’s 4-4 in the postseason, with only eight TD passes and 2 INTs and an 88.4 rating. He gets another test on Sunday in a showdown with the Vikings for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Bills +530, Treasure: Josh Allen is having another typically productive season — 28 TD passes vs 6 INTs to go with 512 yards rushing and 10 TDs. But maybe the key for Buffalo this postseason will be RB James Cook. He’s about to top 1,000 yards for the second straight season and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry with only one fumble. He’ll need to take the pressure off Allen, who can get in trouble trying to do too much in close playoff games.

Eagles +650, Treasure: We are still loving that Philly ranks No. 1 in defense (280.9 ypg) and No. 1 in rushing (187.3). That will help QB Jalen Hurts, who is not an overly prolific passer and who does well by not throwing INTs and getting the ball to his receiver studs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Hurts will miss Week 18 with a concussion, but he’s heading into the playoffs with 18 TD passes against only 5 INTs during the regular season and a 103.7 rating. That’s how the Eagles will go far: great running, great defense and great QB efficiency.

Ravens +675, Treasure: There are a ton of unknowns heading into these playoffs, and maybe the biggest burden to bear is Lamar Jackson’s. We all know the dude is an otherworldly talent, with amazing open field moves, a rocket arm and one of the best play-extenders in NFL history. But as Stephen A. loudly reminded us last year, Jackson has greatly underperformed in the postseason. In the postseason, LJ is 2-4 with 6 TD passes and 6 INTs.

Vikings +800, Treasure: The reclamation project of Sam Darnold is nearly complete, or maybe it is already. He’s thrown 18 TD passes against 2 INTs over the past seven games, and Minnesota has won nine straight games. The Vikings do have a great record at 14-2, but they’ve only beaten three teams with winning records: the Packers (twice), the Seahawks and Texans. That’s not overly impressive. Obviously, the biggest test will be on Sunday in Detroit.

Packers +1600, Trash: Green Bay has lost twice to the Lions and twice to the Vikings. Nuff said. They’re frauds.

Rams +3500, Treasure: The LAR have the best overall QB in the NFC in future Hall of Famer Matt Stafford, along with a young and talented team and great head coach Sean McVay. The Rams will probably have win a couple of playoff games on the road, but if anyone can pull that off, it’s Staff.

Buccaneers +3500, Treasure: Baker Mayfield is having his best season and probably can beat anyone if he’s really on. They did beat the Commanders, Eagles and Lions early in the season.

Chargers +4000, Trash: LAC is having a solid first season under Jim Harbaugh, but even Mr. Enthusiasm won’t be able to get this team to the big game. The LAC have no statement wins this season and have failed every major test, vs the Chiefs (twice), the Ravens and the Steelers.

Commanders +4500, Treasure: No rookie QB has ever reached the Super Bowl, but there’s something magical about what Jayden Daniels has done in his first season in DC. He’s worth plunking down a few bucks on, just for kicks.

Here’s where to bet: