Super Bowl 59 Futures Trash or Treasure: Show Out or Be Out

Oh yeah, baby. It’s time to do or die, put up or shut up, talk or walk, and whatever tired-ass cliche you want to throw out there. It’s Super Wild Card Weekend, with six games and 12 teams in action (while the Lions and Chiefs rest up and plot their path to Super Bowl glory).

With that, this is our final Trash or Treasure of the season, your last best chance to plunk some bucks on a Super Bowl futures bet. You really think rookie Bo Nix can guide the Broncos to their fourth franchise title? Lay down the money. You think Baker Mayfield can get it done with Tampa? Pony up.

Is your team a closer? Or just another fraud for the dustbin of NFL playoff history?

We take a look at all 14 playoff teams and measure whether they are Treasure (worth a futures bet) or Trash (probably not). Odds are from Caesars.

Wild card schedule: Chargers at Texans, Steelers at Ravens, Broncos at Bills, Packers at Eagles, Commanders at Buccaneers, Vikings at Rams.

Detroit Lions +290 (Treasure): Is there dent in the armor? Detroit is 15-2, the No. 1 seed and swept the Vikings and Packers in all four games against their NFC North foes. If there are any reasons for concern, they are these:

  • Only 3 dome teams have won the title (Rams twice, Saints)
  • QB Jared Goff is 4-4 in the playoffs with a rating 7 points lower than his regular-season rating
  • The Lions are 2-2 against non-NFC North playoff teams this season
  • The Lions’ defense is in the bottom half of the league

All that being said, the Lions get to play in their loud dome throughout the NFC playoffs, and then get to play in the Superdome in the Super Bowl, if they get that far.

Kansas City Chiefs +350 (Treasure): KC can achieve what has never been done — three straight titles. Don Shula’s Dolphins couldn’t do it, Bill Walsh’s 49ers couldn’t do it and Chuck Noll’s Steelers couldn’t do it, and all those teams were damn good. But Patrick Mahomes has a 15-3 playoff record and a better rating in the postseason than regular season. Only three things can get in their way: Josh Allen finally breaking the KC glass ceiling; Lamar Jackson finally breaking his self-imposed playoff glass ceiling; or an untimely Chiefs’ meltdown.

Baltimore Ravens +600 (Treasure): Lamar Jackson is the most talented quarterback in the field. That doesn’t mean he’s the best quarterback in the field. He gets the yips in the playoffs. He got a little too excited last season after beating the Texans in the divisional round, then looked lost against the Chiefs and sustained national criticism. If he can somehow turn the corner this postseason, watch the hell out.

Buffalo Bills +600 (Treasure): The NFL world has waited nearly seven seasons to see Josh Allen do what most expected: use his immense arm and powerful legs to lead the Bills to their first NFL title and finally smash the memories of Scott Norwood and four straight flops on the Super Bowl stage. I mean, it has to happen, right? The guy’s too good, right? Buffalo has suffered enough, right? By now, we all know what has to happen. Darth Mahomes awaits, ready to slay another dream. But maybe, just maybe, Josh finally makes the big pass that Patrick doesn’t make this time. Can’t wait to see it.

Philadelphia Eagles +650 (Treasure): Wasn’t it a year ago that this team was in a doom spiral? Their QB Jalen Hurts being questioned for his locker room leadership and their coach Nick Sirianni maybe reaping the karma for his big mouth? Philly now ranks No. 1 in defense, No. 2 in rushing offense and is tied for third in turnover ratio. But can they rally if they need to? Jalen Hurts is 2-3 in the playoffs, and his rating dips below his regular-season number. But the Eagles have the experience and line play to derail Detroit’s team, maybe more than anyone else.

Minnesota Vikings +1600 (Trash): It took 17 games and the biggest game of the season for the Vikings and their fans to realize: Sam Darnold is who we thought he was. After nine straight wins, Darnold flopped in Detroit, dropping the Vikes to the No. 5 seed and a very unfortunate matchup in LA against Matthew Stafford and the surging Rams. No doubt, the Vikings can win that game, but Good Sam needs to show up, not Former Flop Sam.

Green Bay Packers +2000 (Trash): The Pack has already lost in Philly, which is where their first-round matchup is. The Pack has also lost twice to the Lions and twice to the Vikings. They’ve got the personnel to win (Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs), and the four losses to their NFC North rivals were by a total of 17 points, so there IS reason for hope.

Los Angeles Chargers +2800 (Trash): Jim Harbaugh’s crew is 2-5 against playoff teams, and the only two wins came against the Broncos. LAC might be able to steal a win in Houston this weekend, but we can’t see anything beyond that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3000 (Treasure): Baker Mayfield is one of those QBs you want on your team in the playoffs. He’s got a gunslinger mentality and he’s not a guy who’ll shrink in the moment. Granted, he might throw a stupid interception, but he also might throw 3 TD passes in the same game. TB has won six of their past seven games, and five of their losses were by one score. And they did beat the Commanders, Lions and Eagles early. In the NFC, Bake could get this team far.

Los Angeles Rams +4000 (Treasure): Matt Stafford is a future Hall of Famer, won the Super Bowl three years ago and the Rams won five straight games to clinch the NFC West prior to their meaningless regular-season finale against Seattle. This team was once 1-4. They’ve got proficient yard-gainers everywhere: Staff, Kyren Williams (1,299 yards rushing) and WRs Puka Nacua (79 rec, 990 yards) and good ol’ Cooper Kupp (67-710). LAR has an early chance to knock out a 14-3 team (Vikings) at SoFi Stadium.

Washington Commanders +5500 (Trash): It will be really interesting to see how rookie QB Jayden Daniels (25 TDs, 9 INTs, 100.1 rating) does in his playoff debut in Tampa Bay this weekend. No rookie QB has reached the Super Bowl ever, but Daniels seems to have a winner’s touch.

Denver Broncos +7000 (Trash): It’s been a nice comeback season for Sean Payton and a solid rookie season for ex-Oregon Ducks star QB Bo Nix. But the season ends this weekend in Buffalo.

Houston Texans +9000 (Trash): The Texans won the AFC South again, but they regressed from last season. They are 1-5 against playoff teams this season, and there is a real chance they lose at home against the Chargers.

Pittsburgh Steelers +10000 (Trash): The Steelers have lost four straight, to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals, and the games weren’t particularly close. Russell Wilson has only four TD passes and 2 INTs in that stretch. The Ravens will end the Tomlin-Wilson mirage this weekend.

Here’s where to bet:


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