Every team is walking on eggshells this time of year. One false move and the whole league can change. If the Raiders beat the Jaguars this week, they lose the first overall pick next year. If the Eagles drop a game to the Commanders, they could lose the first seed and the division. There’s a surplus of these situations around the league as we come to the season’s last three games. Everyone will play tight, nervous, and like they can’t be the one the spotlight finds. You don’t want to be the guy with his pants around his ankles when the fire alarm starts going off. 

Houston Texas @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), O/U 42.5

Everyone is surprised yet again that Patrick Mahomes looked like he suffered a major injury and then came out completely fine. If you weren’t lucky enough to lock in the Chiefs at plus money earlier in the week then you might be SOL on the side. The Chiefs will likely win a close game here, but you don’t know what side of 3.5 that will fall on. But now that the point total is getting inflated with Mahomes playing, I don’t mind a look to the under here. A Saturday afternoon spot between the Chiefs with an injured QB and the Texans who struggling on offense whenever they face a formidable run defense. 

Pick: Under 42.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), O/U 44.5

The Steelers have always had Lamar Jackson’s number. This held when the Steelers won in Pittsburgh earlier this season. I usually take the points with the underdog in this matchup, but it’s getting increasingly difficult with Baltimore looking like one of the more elite teams coming down the stretch. The Steelers will be without George Pickens for the third week in a row and the offense struggled last week without him. I think that’s being factored too much into this number and the Steelers were able to field goal them to death in their last matchup. So, I have to ride with the Steelers again here.

Pittsburgh: +6.5

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9), O/U 46.5

The spread was sitting around 7 all week until it ballooned out to 9 with the news that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be replacing Jameis Winston at quarterback. The Bengals sport an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the league. But if the quarterback for the other team is so bad they can’t move the ball against a bad defense, that locks the Bengals into my betting card.

Pick: Cincinnati -9

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-8.5), O/U 42.5

The line opened Falcons -10 when Kirk Cousins was in line to play for Atlanta. But after some disgraceful, turnover-filled performances by Cousins, the Falcons decided to bench him in favor of the rookie Michael Penix Jr. The line immediately shrunk to 8.5 following this news, which is something I don’t totally understand. If Michael Penix Jr. is going to take over at quarterback, I see that as a potential upgrade over Cousins who was throwing more pick-sixes than touchdowns. There isn’t really a way for Penix Jr. to be much worse. 

Pick: Atlanta -8.5

Detriot Lions (-6.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 47.5

The Detroit Lions continue to stack up injuries. They’re mostly piling up on the defensive side of the ball, taking away what was once regarded as one of the top units in the league. The Bears are in disarray, but I don’t doubt their ability to get into a shootout against a bad defense. The Lions can also score with anyone in the league. Rather than lay the touchdown on the road with the Lions, I’m just going to predict that there will be a flurry of points scored.

Pick: Over 47.5 Total Points

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.5), O/U 42.5

I hate both of these teams. Even in clear covering situations, they both end up shooting themselves in the foot with mediocre quarterback play and poor coaching. I don’t want to put money on either of them. Will Levis likely won’t see the field in this one, which makes you think the Titans offense can be a little less turnover-laded, but he lowers the ceiling for the team. The Colts should run away with this one, but you never know if someone’s going to drop the ball running into the endzone or throw a pick on a triple reverse.

Pick: Don’t Bet On This Game

Arizona Cardinals (-5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 47.5

The Arizona Cardinals can still win out and take a spot in the playoffs. Their offense has been clunky at times, but I think they can move the ball on the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been surprising people in their own right by some of their performances over the past few weeks. When I look at this game, I see two possible breakout offenses and two underwhelming defenses. 

Pick: Over 47.5 Total Points

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Washington Commanders, O/U 45.5

The last time these two teams played, it was a close game going into the fourth quarter, and then the Eagles took off and covered comfortably. That game was Philly -3.5 at home. The spread hasn’t changed now that the game has moved to Washington, which means the Eagles are getting about two more points of credit in the market now than they were then. I do think the Eagles win this game, but I don’t want to take -3.5. I feel like this one could keep close just like the first game, and the Commanders will be able to lock in a little more on Saquon Barkley. But in the case, the Eagles do deserve the credit, I’m hunting for a Philadelphia -3.

Pick: Philadelphia -3

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ New York Jets, O/U 46.5

The Rams have been on a war path to take the NFC West over the past few weeks. They have the inside track to the playoffs if they continue winning each week. Meanwhile, it’s a lost season for the Jets, and they are running out of things to play for. The big thing here is that the Rams offense tends to turtle up in weather games. There might be some cold wind and rain in New Jersey this weekend, which will neutralize the best unit on the field.

Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks, O/U 42.5

Geno Smith appears to have avoided a major injury and will be back in the lineup for the Seahawks. The Vikings also look to be healthy coming into this one, but Sam Darnold can be affected by a complex defensive scheme, like the one they run in Seattle. When I think of these two teams, I think of two stout defenses who want to limit the run and explosive plays. I don’t see either team blowing the other out in this one. I think it will be a rock fight in Seattle on Sunday.

Pick: Under 42.5 Total Points

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-14), O/U 46.5

The Bills’ defense hasn’t been showing in their last couple of games against the Rams and the Lions, but they’ve been known to completely snuff out teams with bad offenses. Drake Maye is on the rise, but he doesn’t have the supporting cast to keep up with this elite Buffalo offense. I think the Bills take a big early lead and then sit on it in the second half. That makes me worried about taking the full game line, but I like the Bills to cover the first-half line.

Pick: First Half Buffalo -7.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders (1.5), O/U 40.5

Both of these teams’ seasons ended weeks ago. They have very little incentive to win this game, and they probably have more motivation to lose it. Whoever loses this game could land the first overall pick. Whoever wins it could end up in the 7-9 pick range. In a situation like this, I will take the underdog in a true coin-flip game.

Pick: Jacksonville Moneyline

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins (-1), O/U 44.5

We’re ending the article with another “fake game.” Neither of these teams has much left to play for on the season. The 49ers’ injuries continue to stack up, with Trent Williams and Isaac Gurrendo adding to the long list of players who won’t suit up in this game. The 49ers struggle when Trent Williams isn’t in the lineup and the Dolphins are still clinging to their last shred of hope of making the playoffs.

Pick: Miami -1