Gather ’round, it’s time to open up your presents. OK, so we are a little early for Christmas giving, but isn’t it the thought that counts? These prezzies didn’t come from Amazon, but they could help you get just a little closer to Jeff Bezos’ yearly earnings (emphasis on the word ‘little’).
Once again, we are looking at the shortest futures odds for winning February’s Super Bowl in New Orleans. We’re also giving you Santa’s take on whether each team is worth placing some money on. And it changes every week — this week’s ‘treasure’ team could be next week’s ‘trash’ team, depending on how they shine or suck on the field.
(Odds are from Caesars):
Buffalo Bills (+400), Treasure: Josh Allen & crew are scoring an insane amount this season and have an outside shot at surpassing the Denver Broncos’ record of 606 points for the most in a single season (although Denver did it in 16 games). Maybe having an unstoppable offense will be their best chance of finally overcoming the KC hurdle in the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles (+430), Treasure: We’ve hinted at this before. Philly might be the best all-around team in the NFC, and maybe this has been true for a few years. They are No. 1 in yards allowed and No. 1 in rushing yards per game. That means they control the trenches, which is how you go deep into the postseason.
Detroit Lions (+460), Treasure: Detroit’s D is starting to crack a bit, giving up 79 points over the past two weeks. Jared Goff is still doing well by fantasy players, with a 14-1 TD-INT ratio in his past five games. Despite Detroit’s amazing season, they are now tied with Minnesota for the NFC North lead. That means the Lions could wind up with the No. 5 seed and face a dicey road wild-card playoff game at either Rams or Buccaneers. Pretty much every team hits a skid at some point during the season; the Lions have to hope this isn’t theirs.
Kansas City Chiefs (+550), Treasure: Been there, done that. KC ekes out win after win and doesn’t look good doing it. Patrick Mahomes gets hobbled by an injury, then pulls a Michael Jordan ‘flu game’ the following week. Chiefs are still 3-peat bound until they’re not.
Baltimore Ravens (+850), Trash: Baltimore doesn’t look as formidable as last season, but let’s see how they do against the Steelers and Texans over the next two weekends. Maybe it’s better that expectations are lower for them heading into the playoffs. Lamar Jackson needs to be looser this time around.
Green Bay Packers (+1300), Treasure: Jordan Love and the Pack are starting to dominate, at least against trash teams. The QB hasn’t thrown an INT since mid-November after a middling 16 TD-11 INT ratio prior to that. GB has only one tough game left — at Minnesota on Dec. 29. It will show us a lot.
Minnesota Vikings (+1300), Trash: Yes, Sam Darnold is having a redemption season for the ages (who came up with ‘for the ages’ anyway? It’s lame) — with 29 TDs against 11 INTs and 11 games with 100+ passer ratings. But the Vikings have built up their record largely against very weak opponents, and they are only 2-2 against teams with winning records. They haven’t played a decent team since the Rams on Oct. 24. That’s not how to prepare for a grueling postseason run.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3000), Trash: It’s been a nice comeback season for Russell Wilson and Mike Tomlin, but we aren’t yet feeling the championship love for this team. But they can prove us wrong in the next two weeks, with games against the Ravens and Chiefs.
Houston Texans (+3500), Trash: Houston is 1-3 against teams with winning records and notched one-score wins against the Dolphins and Jaguars in the past two weeks. Does that seem like a title-bound team to you?
Los Angeles Rams (+4000), Treasure: LAR has three very winnable games to finish the regular season. They could wind up the No. 3 seed with a 6-game winning streak roaring into the playoffs. Matt Stafford is still the best QB in the NFC and a future Hall of Famer most likely. LAR also entered the 2023 playoffs with a head of steam only to be displaced by Detroit in the wild-card round, so bet on the Rams with a bit of caution.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4000), Treasure: Look, the intriguing thing about the NFC is that it’s easy to envision several teams reaching the Super Bowl, and Baker’s Bucs are among them. The QB has led a 4-game winning stream, including a 4-TD performance in a surprising rout over the Chargers. Mayfield might be the second-best QB in the NFC.
Denver Broncos (+4000), Trash: It looks like Sean Payton was justified in handing the reins to Bo Nix. The former Oregon star has thrown five picks over the past two games, but Denver is riding a 4-game winning streak and can clinch a wild card spot this weekend. However, and it’s a big however, no rookie QB has ever reached the Super Bowl as a starter.
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