Tonight features the first-ever game that was flexed into Thursday Night Football. The Chargers and the Broncos are battling for seeding in the AFC playoff picture, with neither completely securing a playoff berth yet. They both have an exceedingly high chance of making it after the Broncos knocked off the Colts last week, the closest team behind them in the standings. So, although there are playoff implications, this game is more about establishing yourself in the AFC playoff picture. The Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens have cemented themselves into the playoffs for several years now, and they’re looking for a new contender who can potentially shake things up. The Chargers and Broncos are bidding for that spot like they’re sitting in their older brother’s room while his friends are over waiting for their turn in the game. Sometimes they’ll hand you the controller, sometimes you’re just left waiting. 

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below. 

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5), O/U 41.5

The Chargers seemed like they were going to be a problem for other AFC powers in the postseason, but after losing J.K. Dobbins down the stretch, they haven’t been as consistent on offense. They were sporting the league’s best scoring defense as well, but that was ended when Baker Mayfield and the Bucs came in and hung 40 points on them last week. So, this spot is where the Chargers will try to stop the bleeding, but I don’t know if they can in their current state.

The Broncos’ defense and offensive line are both the highest-ranked among playoff-bound teams right now. They’ve been able to keep games close and Bo Nix upright enough for him to get comfortable in his rookie season. The Chargers will struggle to establish a rhythm on the ground, and the Broncos’ secondary will keep LA’s receivers in check. This will be a close, probably low-scoring game in the end with Denver either falling short or winning outright. I grabbed some Denver +3 earlier in the week, but I would still take 2.5 because of the nature of this game. I don’t mind the outright moneyline pick for plus money but just know this will probably be a coinflip game with slim margins. I also love Denver in a teaser leg this week.

Pick: Denver +2.5

An Unlikely Hero In LA

Will Dissly has been a large part of this Los Angeles offense for the stretch run. However, he will not be in the lineup for this game due to a shoulder injury. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s offense regularly utilizes the tight end on third down and short-yardage situations, and that’s regardless of whether it’s an All-Pro or Undrafted Rookie taking the snap. The next man up at tight end for the Chargers is Stone Smartt, and they’re still hanging his receiving line at under 30 yards at some books. Not to mention, the Broncos have been stringent in the passing game all season, and they’ll need Smartt to open things up over the middle of the field.

Pick: Stone Smartt Over 30.5 Receiving Yards