As a former resident of Upstate New York, I love it when I get to see my Bills let it rip in a snow game. I have fond memories of sitting on my buddy’s couch contemplating if we should go shovel the stadium for some free tickets (we never did). We’d build snow tables in the front yard to jump through and we slid down the snow drifts when we finally broke the 17-year drought.

This season is different from those times, as the Bills are winning football games for the first extended period in my lifetime. The 49ers are coming to town desperate for a win to keep their season alive. But with a win, the Bills can clinch the AFC East and a spot in the playoffs. Let there be snow!

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San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5), O/U 44.5

Sean McDermott and Josh Allen are undefeated the week after the bye, which is the case for this primetime spot. But, with a ton of snow in the forecast and the 49ers’ propensity to run the football, I am slightly worried about their ability to cover nearly a touchdown spread. The 49ers are missing a few key pieces on their defense and Brock Purdy is returning from injury this week, which makes me hesitant to take them to cover as well.

When the snow is flurrying, everyone looks to the under. Snow actually helps the offenses score a bit more as long as the wind isn’t too much of a factor. The offenses know where they’re going before the ball is snapped, and the defense slips all over the field trying to anticipate routes and run blocks. So, with a banged-up 49ers’ defense and calmer winds in the forecast, give me the over in the snow. The Snover. I’d let casual bettors slam the under right up until game time and take it right before kickoff to see if you can get a better number.

Pick: Over 44.5 Total Points

A Prop To Warm You Up

The Bills will be without Dalton Kincaid in this game due to a nagging knee injury. Tight ends are an important part of their offensive system, whether used in the passing or blocking game. Most sets you’ll see in a snowy game like this will be out of 12 personnel, which has two tight ends on the field. Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris will be the two starting tight ends for Buffalo in Kincaid’s absence. Josh Allen loves to look at Dawson Knox and Kincaid in the red zone to play big-man ball and come down with a contested catch. However, Morris’ odds are a lot longer than Knox’s and he already has a touchdown on the season.

Pick: Quintin Morris Anytime Touchdown