We’re past Thanksgiving, and my pants still won’t buckle. If you’re like me, you’re rolling this holiday into the weekend. The leftover sandwiches are aplenty, and the corporate world has decided this bundle of days doesn’t really matter. We all owe it to ourselves to take this time to cozy into the couch and catch some Week 13 NFL football with whatever family is still left in town.

These are the weeks in the NFL where you’re looking for your name on the “In The Hunt” graphic. These divisions are compressing down the stretch and by the end of the weekend, we could have a few more teams falling out of sight. There’s already a portion of the league looking at next year’s draft (looking at you New York), and in that case, maybe turn your attention to the college games to see who will be playing for you next year.

Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 44.5

The Texans looked like they would run away with the division a few weeks ago, but after an ugly loss to the Titans, they seem desperate to pull this team together. CJ Stroud was great under pressure last season, but this offensive line has been a turnstile all season. Stroud’s sophomore slump hasn’t been a pretty watch, but they’re in a perfect position to have an offensive bounce back. The Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence back in the lineup and they just need to get something on tape that they feel good about. I think both teams can score in this one. 

Pick: Over 44.5 Total Points

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 47.5

If you ask anyone, they’ll say the Chargers are the better team in this matchup. They’re well-coached and Justin Herbert is reminding everyone he’s one of the better quarterbacks in the league. But this is such a bad spot for the Chargers. They’re coming off back-to-back primetime matchups and traveling across the country on a short week facing a team coming off a bye week. I think the Falcons should be favored in this game, or at least a pick ‘em.

Pick: Atlanta Moneyline

Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders (-5.5), O/U 44.5

The Commanders looked to be one of the top teams in the NFC, but after some depressing losses to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys, the shine is coming off of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. I think they stop the skid here against the Titans coming off a huge win over a divisional rival. The Commanders need the win to remain in the NFC playoff picture, and the Titans don’t have enough offensive firepower to get it done. But if you’re one of the many people who continue to respect this Tennessee defense, I would just take them to win outright instead of getting the points. However, I think the Commanders take care of business here.

Pick: Washington -5.5

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ New England Patriots, O/U 42.5

My hot take last week was that the Colts were going to upset the Detroit Lions. That proved to be very, very, very wrong. I still think the Colts have found something offensively after Richardson spent a few weeks on the bench. The reason they got smacked by the Lions was that they were undisciplined, took bad penalties, and played themselves out of the game. It will be a totally different situation against a bad Patriots team.

Pick: Indianapolis -2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3), O/U 47.5

The Steelers find themselves playing a divisional opponent on the road for a second straight week. They dropped the ball in a snowstorm against Cleveland, and their run defense has fallen apart down the stretch. The Bengals will be fresh coming out of a bye week, and I think we’ll see an offensive explosion from them. They perform best when their backs are against the wall, and their backs have been on that wall for several weeks now.

Pick: Cincinnati -3 (Look for a 2.5)

Seattle Seahawks (-1) @ New York Jets, O/U 42.5

Seattle’s defense came out of the bye and got a statement win against the Arizona Cardinals to take the lead in a crowded NFC West. Mike McDonald is installing a strong defensive system, and the bye week came at the perfect time for this young team. I think they keep it rolling against a Jets team that has one foot out of the door on this season. One more loss, and they could pack it in and head to Cancun. 

Pick: Seattle -1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 46.5

The entire world was cheering for Bryce Young to upset the Chiefs last week, but they fell short in the final minutes. They look like they have a functional offense for the first time this year, and I’ve upgraded them accordingly. Meanwhile, the Bucs have another week to get healthy and have Mike Evans back in the lineup. I don’t feel safe taking either side to cover, but I think there’s a good chance one or both of these offenses will be able to score in this one.

Pick: Over 46.5 Total Points

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 49.5

I’m not going to lie to you; this is a bad spot for the Rams. They’re on the road playing a team coming off the bye. But their defensive line will be able to put plenty of pressure on Carr, who will be behind a lackluster offensive line. The shine has to come off interim Head Coach Darren Rizzi. The Rams haven’t looked good in their last couple of matchups, but this is where the skid stops. 

Pick: Los Angeles -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (-3), O/U 51.5

This will be the preeminent game of the Sunday slate. The Eagles haven’t faced an offense as potent as Baltimore’s all season. But, I think this is a good opportunity for them to prove themselves against a good opponent. Baltimore’s defense will be up against it against these stud wide receivers, and they won’t be able to run their usual pass-funnel strategy. Unless the Ravens can find a way to run the ball and play keep away against a stout Philadelphia defensive front, I think Philadelphia falls within the number.

Pick: Philadelphia +3