Recently I’ve taken to running more. I do about two miles every other day because it really changes how your body is… kidding. I’m running because I have a turkey bowl game coming up and I cannot be the most out-of-breath guy for the 11th year in a row. I’m a Quarterback, Center, Safety hybrid who shows up in boots and mittens. I’m 11-0 in games played but don’t ask anyone else who played because they will debate that statistic.

After the game, we all grab some wings and an ice-cold beer and watch a beautiful seven hours of the professionals we were imitating on the field. There’s nothing better than sports this time of year. They form bonds between friends and family and being able to enjoy them together, well there’s nothing better than that in life. Now, let’s give some picks.

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below each section!

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-4), O/U 43.5

Can someone tell Shane Steichen to stop using the phrase “for the rest of the season?” After benching Anthony Richardson “for the rest of the season” in favor of dusty old Joe Flacco at quarterback, Head Coach Steichen is going back to the rookie for a totally believable “rest of the season.”

Joe Flacco was playing like the worst quarterback in the NFL over that stretch, so theoretically, this has to be an improvement for the Colts, at least in terms of upside. I’m also hard-pressed to trust anything the Jets do on any given Sunday down the stretch.

Pick: Indianapolis +4

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 48.5

This game always rules. The Steelers proved last week against the Commanders that their defense was legit. Throughout their matchups with Lamar, they’ve always given him trouble. Derrick Henry adds a new wrinkle to this rivalry, but I trust Pittsburgh’s ability to keep the game within reach so they can’t lean on him to salt the game away. Steelers win an ugly one or lose a close ugly one.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) @ Tennessee Titans, O/U 39.5

Would anyone be surprised if Sam Darnold was quarterbacking the Titans next season? I wouldn’t. But in this game, he needs to get his groove back. He had the Vikings looking like a world-beater earlier in the season but has recently come down with a case of the picks. 

I think this is a great get-right spot for the Vikings. I don’t know what to make of Tennessee on the other side of the ball, because Will Levis is completely unpredictable. Vikings will run it up when they can, and the Titans will do whatever they do otherwise.

Pick: Minnesota Over 23.5 Team Total

Cleveland Browns (-1) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 44.5

I love me some revenge. The Saints held Jameis Winston under lock and key during his entire tenure in New Orleans and he has seemingly found a place in the NFL in Cleveland. Who knows what will happen next year when the Bad Man is off of IR, but for now this is Jameis’ show. I can’t believe the Saints are even favored in this game.

Pick: Cleveland Moneyline

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (-14), O/U 46.5

Oh lordy, that’s a big point spread. And I don’t disagree with it either. The Jaguars are basically playing what should be the last meaningful game of the season, but it’s against the NFC’s juggernaut. In any other case, I’d say the Jags pull out all the stops and throw the kitchen sink at Detroit, but all they have left is a dixie cup of water. 

I’ll take Detroit to cover, but I’m also going to sprinkle some alt lines up to -21.5.

Pick: Detroit -14, maybe -100

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 40.5

This is the game that’s been giving me headaches all week. The Packers opened as 7-point favorites early in the week, but with the news of Chicago firing OC Shane Waldron, the line has dropped to 5.5. We also don’t know how healthy QB Jordan Love is for the Pack, as he looked extremely hobbled by his groin injury in the game against the Lions. But the Packers have had a bye week to recover, and they might just bulldoze a dysfunctional Bears team.

Pick: Green Bay -5.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-7), O/U 43.5

The Dolphins’ defense came alive against the Rams on Monday Night Football, but the offense has continued to struggle despite everyone telling me Tua Tagovailoa is the greatest quarterback to walk this earth. Las Vegas is moving to Scott and Norv Turner to run the offense now, and Gardner Minshew is back in the saddle at quarterback. I think the Raiders are incentivized to lose this game and get a better draft pick, but I don’t know if Miami is all there on offense just yet.

Pick: Las Vegas +7

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) @ New England Patriots, O/U 43.5

This is a putrid travel spot for the Rams. They are going across the entire country on a short week to play outdoor football in mid-November. I don’t think the Patriots will play good enough ball to pull the upset, but I could see both offenses struggling to get off the bus. Drake Maye is the only one who makes me worried about this pick, as Matt Stafford has been playing subpar football for the last few weeks.

Pick: Under 43.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (-2), O/U 44.5

I’ve been watching this line all week to see if there was ever a chance to grab Atlanta at 3. I have these teams power ranked essentially the same, and they have a lot of strengths vs. weaknesses matched up on both sides of the ball. The Falcons aren’t going to be able to get their pass rush on Bo Nix, allowing him to get some clean looks in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Broncos will struggle to stop Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the rushing game. In a coin flip game, give me the dog.

Pick: Atlanta Moneyline

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5), O/U 47.5

Seattle is coming off a much-needed bye week. They’re going to have stud WR DK Metcalf back in the lineup. They’re also a very young team with a rookie Head Coach, which tends to create the most improvement for someone coming out of the bye. San Francisco is playing a lot of close games and doesn’t seem like the world-beaters that they’ve been in the past. And if you’re going to give me nearly a touchdown spread in a divisional game this late in the season, I’m going to take the points.

Pick: Seattle +6.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5), O/U 45.5

Games like these are the reason I’m bald. I’m a diehard Bills fan and I hate every narrative around the Chiefs and the Bills. So, I’ll try to tune out all of the noise and handicap that’s in front of me. The Bills will be down Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid on offense, and it remains to be seen if they’ll get Amari Cooper back. But, to be fair, the engine that makes this offense go in the passing game is Khalil Shakir. Kansas City is staying away from chunk play and running a conservative plan by running the ball and playing defense. Neither of these teams will show a lot because they’ll most likely meet again in the playoffs, so give me Buffalo to try a little more to get across the finish line in this one.

Pick: Buffalo -2.5 because I have to.