As we’re catching our collective breath from the first seven hours of football on Sunday, we’re going to be hit with a beautifully intense game on Sunday Night Football. Matt Stafford continues to haunt the Lions like a bitter ex-girlfriend who has your geo-location on her phone and pops up in the most inconvenient situations.

But the drama is why we tune in. The Lions and the Rams met in the postseason last year, and the Lions squeaked out a thrilling win 24-23. We’d be so lucky to see a matchup like that this time around.

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (-4.5), O/U 52.5

The line has been moving like crazy in this one, where we’ve seen Detroit -3 push all the way out to 4.5. It’s also the highest point total of the week. For most of the week, however, this sat 3.5 and I expect it to get back there by kickoff. If you’re a Rams fan, I’d jump in now before this number goes away.

But I’m not here to tell what side to bet on. I’m here to be the sad trombone. I’m here to throw a cold bucket of water on everyone locking into their TV Sunday night to watch a high-scoring affair. I’m taking the under in this one.

The biggest mismatch here is the Lions’ defensive line against the Rams’ offensive line. A staunch, overwhelming unit led by Aiden Hutchinson, taking on a young unproven line that will attempt to keep Matt Stafford upright. I think that’s just enough of a hiccup to slow the game down. Plus both the Lions and the Rams love to run the ball. The game may get too short to reach this point total.

Pick: Under 52.5 Total Points

There’s still plenty of room for some of these players to get loose in the game, however. Stafford and Goff can sling it, and they’ll be indoors in perfect conditions. You could make a case for nearly any position player in this game to go over, but I’m trying to find the surest thing with the highest value. Those things aren’t always coupled together.

I hit this bet several times last year because, with Puka Nacua’s rise, Cooper Kupp became more underrated. In an injury-riddled 2023 campaign, he still eclipsed 100 yards four times, mainly at the beginning and end of the season, when he was at his healthiest. A healthy Cooper Kupp gets 100 receiving yards in a game if Matt Stafford is his quarterback. This line should not be +300.

Pick: Cooper Kupp 100+ Receiving Yards (+300)