I don’t have a lot of hobbies. My bicycle is broken. I’m not good at playing poker. The pickleball courts near my house are getting repainted. There’s only so much XBox you can play in a day. I’d rather jump off of a bridge than train for a marathon. My hobby is FOOTBALL.
I have been so bored since last February and I’m chomping at the bit to sit on my couch all day Sunday and absorb as much football as I possibly can. In this weekly column, I’ll try my best to get at least one pick per game so that you have something you can look for no matter what is playing on your TV. Because at the end of the day, we’re all just trashy football enjoyers.
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears (-4), O/U 44.5
All summer this number was 4.5 or 5, which is where I jumped in. I think the Titans win this one outright. I won’t trust a rookie quarterback favored by this many points in his first NFL start. Not to mention, I’ve been quietly saying that Will Levis will be a good quarterback because I’m not brave enough to say it online yet.
Pick: Tennessee +4, TEN Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5), O/U 42.5
The Steelers believe they’re upgrading their offense by adding new OC Arthur Smith, while the Falcons believe they’re upgrading their offense by firing him. If you can get the hook, I’ll take Mike Tomlin to make this a close game. Without the full 3.5 though, I’d stay away.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5), O/U 49.5
Whoa baby, this is a lot of teal. This game reeks of a shootout as Jacksonville vamped up its WR room in the offseason, while Miami misses several key players on its defense. I think this one hits the over with no problem, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jaguars win it outright.
Pick: Over 49.5, Jacksonville +3.5, JAX Moneyline
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5), O/U 40.5
I for one did not work all week to waste my money by wagering on Drake Maye, Jerod Mayo, and the New England Patriots. Not today, not ever. But I also don’t have a high opinion of this Bengals defense. I think Rhamondre Stevenson is going to get loose on the ground in this one, but I don’t know if Mayo is going to stay committed to the ground game if they’re down by several scores.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5), O/U 47
The Cardinals did basically nothing to improve one of the league’s worst defenses in the offseason, but they do have some shiny new weapons on offense. Oh yeah, and the Bills have Josh Fucking Allen. I smell a lot of points in Orchard Park this Sunday.
Pick: Over 47 Total Points
Houston Texans (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts, O/U 48.5
Nothing in my brain tells me the Colts should get this much respect here. I think a lot of the money is just from bettors blindly taking home underdogs in week one. But at every level, Houston is the better team. I think they win easily.
Pick: Houston -3
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ New York Giants, O/U 41.5
Sam Darnold’s return to New York won’t feature seeing ghosts or getting mono. But this time, he’ll get the win. I’m willing to believe he can be a mid-level quarterback with a good head coach and a loaded receiver room against one of the worst teams in the league. Stay indoors Giants fans, it’s going to be ugly.
Pick: Minnesota -1.5
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 41.5
I know this is the “Trash Pile,” but this game is truly vile and disgusting. If this is the only game you have on locally, switch the channel to Guy’s Grocery Games or The Masked Singer. Go outside and get some fresh air. Don’t watch this game. But, you should bet on Derek Carr to throw an interception because he’s trash.
Pick: Derek Carr Over 0.5 Interceptions
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks (-6), O/U 41.5
I’m pretty excited for the “We Hate Russell Wilson Bowl.” But I don’t have a strong feeling about how it will go. I think the Seahawks will get a win with Mike McDonald’s awesome new defense and I think Bo Nix will be in hell all afternoon. I would tease the Seahawks down to a pick and pair it with the Bengals -2.5 or Cowboys +8.5.
Pick: Bo Nix Sucks
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3), O/U 40
The last time these teams played, the Raiders won 63-21 in a fierce matchup between Aidan O’Connell (now the back) and Easton Stick (soon to be selling insurance). I don’t know who wins, but I do know the final score will be 7-0.
Pick: Under 40 Total Points
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5), O/U 41
I think we’re in for a pretty low-scoring 4 pm window on Sunday. Hopefully, you get your chores done before the early slate. I don’t trust Deshaun Watson’s shoulder or his morals. The Cowboys have no options in the passing game besides Ceedee Lamb and a running back room that was born in the early 90’s.
Pick: Under 41 Total Points
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5), O/U 42.5
If anyone here knows what either of these teams will be this season, please let me know. The only thing I trust here is Jayden Daniels using his legs to make some plays. Todd Bowles is going to send the house on him, and Daniels is going to dodge the collapsing pocket and take off.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 37.5 Rushing Yards
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