After watching the first month of the season, I’ve come to this conclusion: A majority of NFL teams are terrible. There isn’t a fully complete and unbeatable team this year. Even the market’s highest-rated team, the Kansas City Chiefs, lacks explosive weapons on offense and struggles to cover spreads. At least one part of everyone’s favorite team is garbage. The Bengals’ defense? Trash. The Giants’ offense? Dumpster fire! The Dolphins’ everything? A steaming pile of crap.

This week’s slate is all about finding what ugly parts match up well with uglier parts. Eventually, someone has to start playing good football….right? And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below!

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 49.5

Fresh off demolishing the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens look like they’re handing the ball off to Derrick Henry a bazillion times in every meaningful game. And if the team they’re playing lacks size on defense, he will wreck them.

Enter the Cincinnati Bengals, who boast one of the worst run defenses in the league. Joe Burrow has found a way to make these games close in the past. Not this time, pal.

Pick: Baltimore -2.5

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-1), O/U 36.5

I read the matchup for this game and my stomach turned. The whole country watched the Dolphins essentially get blown out by an 0-3 Titans team starting a backup quarterback. Some people viewed this team as a Super Bowl contender coming into the season. And even if Tua was under center for them still, the offensive line is a disaster. They’ve led for zero seconds during the regular season and continue to stack up terrible injuries on defense.

But, if Mike McDaniels is worth anything to this team, he’ll win this game. The offense is based on timing and rhythm, which takes a while to develop. I think Snoop Huntley will move the ball a little more in this one, while the Patriots continue to struggle with their identity.

Pick: Don’t Bet On This Game But If You Do Miami Moneyline

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-4), O/U 41.5

“The Bears at over a field goal? No way! I’m HAMMERING the Panthers” – Some Idiot

The best unit by a mile in this matchup is Chicago’s defense. And Caleb Williams has shone flashes in the split seconds he has to get the ball out behind his swiss cheese offensive line.

However, last week the Bengals and their below-average offensive line played these same Panthers. 71 offensive snaps between the two teams, not a single sack. Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow only felt pressure on two dropbacks during the entire game. We’re finally going to see what Caleb Williams can do with a little time to throw.

Pick: Chicago -4

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), O/U 46.5

I don’t know how you can back this Colts team after pulling off a big upset with their backup quarterback. Not to mention the inconsistency of Anthony Richardson, who has struggled with hitting his receivers and staying healthy. We don’t even know what quarterback we’ll see in this game. 

I don’t know how you can back this Jaguars team who is the last winless team in the NFL. They should have beaten the Dolphins. They could have beaten the Texans. But Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming and Doug Pederson seems like he’s going to be on Indeed soon. And in a game where it’s Ugly vs. Ugly, I’ll take the points.

Pick: Indianapolis +3

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders (-3), O/U 43.5

I hate my pick for this game. The Washington Commanders are one of the biggest surprises of this young NFL season. Jayden Daniels looks like a star in the making, and the defense is overperforming compared to their rating in the market. Dan Quinn is one of the favorites for Coach of the Year, and Washington is in the driver’s seat for the NFC East division title.

So give me the Browns. Deshaun Watson is getting more comfortable, the defense is rounding into form and the offensive line is getting healthier. You’re buying the Browns at a very low price here and the Commanders at the highest of high.

Pick: Cleveland Moneyline

Buffalo Bills (-1) @ Houston Texans, O/U 47.5

I’m worried about my Billy Boys. Von Miller’s suspension couldn’t have come at a worse time. Stud OT Dion Dawkins picked up a hamstring injury last week. The leading receiver, Khalil Shakir, is nursing an ankle injury, and the two biggest factors in the middle of the field, LB Terrell Bernard and NCB Taron Johnson, don’t look like they’ll be back this week.

But the Texans have underwhelmed so far this season. They struggled with the lowly Colts, Jaguars and Bears while getting thumped by the only good team they’ve faced this season, the Vikings. I think this will be a matchup between two quarterbacks with something to prove and defenses that can’t keep up.

Pick: Over 47.5 Total Points

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-2.5), O/U 35.5

One of these teams will be 3-2. Sit with that for a second. Either Antonio Pierce, Gardner Minshew and the Raiders without Davante Adams will be 3-2, or Sean Payton, Bo Nix, and the Broncos without an offense will be 3-2.

The only thing I know for sure is that these defenses will be humming. The Raiders’ defensive line is loaded with talent, while the Broncos have shut down good teams like the Bucs and the Jets in recent matchups. I’d love to take the Raiders at 3 because I don’t think Minshew will take many risks, while Bo Nix may get pressed if the offense stalls and force some mistakes.

Pick: Las Vegas (Look for a 3)

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-7), O/U 49.5

The Cardinals looked like they were going to be an offensive juggernaut in the first couple of weeks of the season, but after struggling to move the ball against the Commanders and Lions, I’m reconsidering.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have been dealing with an insane amount of injuries. But they’re getting healthier despite having nine players on IR and big names like George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Talanoa Hufanga listed as questionable. The X-factor in this one for me is Fred Warner. If he plays, I think the 49ers cover. I’m just not certain he will.

Pick: San Francisco -7 (if Fred Warner plays)

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), O/U 43.5

Despite getting bullied by the Lions last week, Seattle proved to me that they have a decent football team. The new offense under Ryan Grubb is improving, especially with Ken Walker returning to the lineup. And the defense has shut down opponents that don’t have an elite offense.

The Giants don’t have an elite offense nor a secondary that can match up with Seattle’s skill position players. And if Malik Nabers misses this game because he can’t clear concussion protocol, I don’t know how the Giants are moving the ball.

Pick: Seattle -6.5

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams, O/U 48.5

The Rams are one of the most underrated teams in the market right now. They still have the tools to be a high-caliber offense. Kyren Williams is an elite weapon and allows them to score when they get down into the red zone. 

The Packers haven’t completely shut down a team this season. They’ve let a few teams hang around, and the Rams’ backs are up against the wall at this point in their season. Plus, you have Matt Stafford getting three points at home. 

Pick: Los Angeles +3