Coming off a beautiful 5-1-1 week 4 (6-1 if you got the Chargers hook), let’s aim to keep the momentum going in week 5. I’ve decided to stop second-guessing lines that don’t make sense to me—see the Bills last week and this week for examples. This week is a bit trickier in my opinion with bye weeks, team turmoil, and some questionable lines across the board. No excuses—play like a champion. Let’s dive in!

Carolina +3.5 @ Chicago
We’re back on the Panthers train, and it feels a bit horrid! The Bears had a nice road win last week, while the Panthers shot themselves in the foot against a desperate Bengals squad. However, Carolina’s offense looks significantly better with Andy Dalton at the helm, and their offensive line is performing well. The Bears have consistently struggled in the red zone, and I expect that trend to continue, keeping this game close. Despite the line being bet down, I’m sticking with the Red Rocket to cover. Carolina +3.5 is my pick.

Arizona +7.5 @ San Francisco
This bet is terrifying. The Cardinals, particularly Kyler Murray, looked rough last week, while the 49ers are getting healthier and Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level. This game could easily turn into a blowout. So why am I backing the Cards? It’s all about trends and numbers. Since 2015, home division favorites have only covered 45% of the time. Dogs of 6 or more are 9-8 straight up and 14-2-1 ATS this season. Teams losing by 17+ against teams winning by 17+ the previous week are covering at a 60% rate. While that still gives us a 4/10 chance of getting crushed, I’m betting on the trends with Arizona +7.5 on the road.

Seattle -6.5 vs. New York Giants
After watching the Monday night game, I came away feeling more optimistic about Seattle’s offense. There’s talk that Malik Nabers is a long shot to play for the Giants, which is significant given the spread. I expect Seattle’s defense to rebound after their embarrassment on national TV. It’s a short week for the Seahawks and extended rest for the Giants, but with injuries and a cross-country trip, I’m anticipating a dominant performance from Seattle against a struggling team. Seattle -6.5 is my play.

Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Dallas
Another puzzling line here. It’s the Cowboys vs. the Steelers—what’s going on? This is a classic Tomlin spot following an ugly loss. Pittsburgh has a few key advantages in how they want to play. First, they want to run the ball, and Dallas has struggled to stop the run, and will likely be missing key defenders like Parsons and Lawrence. Second, Dallas has been ineffective on the ground, and Pittsburgh can pressure Dak, who is lacking some offensive weapons plus has to deal with a solid CB on his number 1 receiver. I expect a low-scoring, gritty game, but the Steelers should do enough to play to their strengths. Pittsburgh -2.5 is my pick.

New Orleans +5.5 @ Kansas City
This line scares me because of how much I love it. The Saints probably should have won last week, and the Chiefs are dealing with injuries as everyone is well aware of. While Mahomes could prove his worth and silence critics about his lack of weapons, he’s only 48% ATS when favored by 3 or more. This is a big number to cover, especially if the Saints can score touchdowns and the Chiefs shift to a slower pace and grind it out on the ground. I’m taking New Orleans +5.5.

Other Lines to Watch:

My only other pick I’ve taken so far this week is Den -2.5 vs LV. Bo Nix as a favorite isn’t going to make it into my best bets but let’s see what happens.

I’m still unsure about a few games, but the Browns, Bengals, and Texans might be the “right side” to consider. I’m not recommending any of these games yet, but keep in mind that the numbers are set where they are for a reason (the LA Rams could also fit in this category). If you decide to bet on these games, good luck!