Greetings!
We’re back to our winning ways with a solid 3-2 (4-2 with the bonus) week. I’m officially done with Carolina, and I hope you took note that I’m a psycho and you didn’t bet on the Panthers. I’m sure after I say that, they’ll win outright this week. Last week was a field day for the public, which goes to show we can’t always blindly follow sharp money—our own analysis matters. I’m on some public sides again this week, and here’s what I’m looking at:

PHI -3 @ NYG

I’m an Eagles fan, and I rarely bet on them because watching is stressful enough without adding lost money to the mix. As someone who follows them religiously, I can honestly say nothing about how they’ve been playing or coaching fills me with confidence, especially against a pesky Giants team. Losing Jordan Mailata and possibly TE Dallas Goedert hurts, but I think they can replace Mailata well enough and still have the firepower to score against the Giants. Malik Nabors is likely going to torch the Eagles’ secondary, but the Giants losing Andrew Thomas is significant, and both Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence are banged up after already losing Thibodeaux which could hurt a very good defense. I’ve seen the Giants as high as +4, but now that it’s down to 3, I think there’s value on Philly. If the Eagles can finally look functional for an entire game, they’re the better team. It’s a big “if,” but I’m taking the Eagles -3.

DET +1.5 @ MIN

Boy oh boy does it feel like I’m walking into this one. First of all, for as good as Aiden Hutchinson is, moving the line a few points is wild to me. Goff indoors with this Lions offense, which is firing on all cylinders, makes me feel good. The Vikings’ defense is legit, and coming off a bye, they’ll be rested and ready to take control of the division with a win. That being said, this will be their toughest test to date. Losing Aaron Jones could hurt the Vikings’ offense, so keeping an eye on his injury status is key. Metrics point to Minnesota, with their strong pressure rate and Detroit losing their best defensive player, but this number is way off compared to preseason projections, and I’m betting the Vikings come back down to earth after their 5-0 start. Campbell and Goff are 15-4 ATS as conference underdogs and 8-2 ATS when the spread is +4 or shorter. I’m playing the Lions +1.5 in what feels like the exact position the books want us to take.

GB -2.5 vs HOU

Green Bay and Jordan Love seem to get a lot of hype, which I don’t fully understand. They’re a good team, but Super Bowl contenders? That remains to be seen. With that said, I’m betting on them against one of the AFC’s best in Houston! Love and his weapons are relatively healthy, while Houston’s roster is more beat up, including one of the best WR in the game in Nico and the potential absence of Laremy Tunsil. On top of that, some key defensive players look to be trending to miss the game as well. Stroud’s home/road splits give me confidence in the Packers, and historically, Stroud is 1-3 ATS when facing teams that score 24+ PPG and 2-5 ATS against the NFC. Matt LaFleur is 28-15 ATS against .500+ teams, and with Houston facing back-to-back road games in a tough environment, I’m taking Green Bay -2.5.

SEA +3 @ ATL

This is a tricky one. Just when I started to believe in Seattle, their defense fell apart. But Atlanta hasn’t looked impressive either, even struggling against Carolina despite what the score said. Maybe Atlanta is just a team of destiny, and we’re doomed to keep fading them and losing. However, if Seattle gets Tariq Woolen back, that will be a huge boost to their defense. Coming off a mini-bye week, Seattle should be able to apply pressure and make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable. Geno Smith plays better indoors, and if they go with a pass heavy game plan, Atlanta’s pass rush has been nothing to write home about. With the Seahawks desperate after three straight losses, this feels like a solid buy-low, sell-high spot. I’m taking Seattle +3.

NYJ -1.5 @ PIT

Although the Jets lost at home, that penalty-ridden game could have easily gone either way. While I haven’t been impressed with Justin Fields, and I’m puzzled by the decision to start Russell Wilson, whose lack of mobility combined with a banged-up offensive line doesn’t bode well against a tough Jets defense. Pittsburgh’s defense will pose a challenge, but with Davante Adams in the mix and the Jets likely dominating possession, I think they’ll be too much for the Steelers to handle. The lack of QB mobility will allow the Jets to focus on stopping the run game. I’m expecting the Jets to eventually be able to score, and I can’t say the same about the Steelers… I’m rolling with the Jets -1.5.

Bonus Pick:

I don’t feel strongly about many other games, but I’ll mention that the Browns +5.5 is the “right” side to be on. That said, I have no idea if they’re going to quit, given that they’re still starting a quarterback who clearly shouldn’t be playing in the NFL.