We’re back to our winning ways with a 3-2 week. We would have preferred the 49ers kicker to not miss 3 field goals, then make one to end the game instead of going to OT, but I guess Deebo had -5.5 as well and decided to choke out his special teams unit. Anyway, let’s get down to it and take some uncomfortable lines…

PIT +3.5 vs BAL

This is terrifying regardless of injuries, but losing Alex Highsmith makes this feel insane. With that said, let’s play the numbers. Tomlin is 58% ATS against teams over .500, he’s the most profitable coach in years. Tomlin as a dog at home is 76%, as a dog overall he’s 65%. Lamar as a favorite of more than 3 is 34% ATS. The underdog in this matchup has covered 79% of the time. We just have to play it given those numbers. Pit +3.5

CLE +1.5 @ NO

Browns are completely healthy and I think the Saints played their Super Bowl last week. Jameis revenge factor and the Browns defense being the best unit on the field has me leaning Cleveland here. Going with Cle +1.5

LAR -4.5 @ NE

This feels gross. The line moved a bit after the Rams offense looked like garbage on national TV. Now they have to fly across the country on a short week vs a team that seems to be playing tough. Whatever! Expecting a bounce back for Stafford and a much better performance for the Rams overall. McVay is 10-1 ATS on short rest. We’ll take the value on the number after an ugly performance on national TV. Rams -4.5

ATL +2.5 @ DEN

This number moved as well after the Falcons lost and the Broncos almost took down the undefeated Chiefs. Not sure how Denver will respond after that heartbreak and Atlanta is extremely hard to understand, but I expect they bounce back and think they win outright. We’ll go with what I think is the better team and take ATL +2.5.

CIN+1.5 vs LAC

The public will be on the Bengals. I’m going to keep betting against the Chargers until it works or I lose all my money. After this week, betting against the Chargers may fall into the same category as betting on the Jets or the Cowboys, but we’ll see what happens. Burrow is 81% ATS on the road off of a loss and 72% ATS as a dog. Give me the Bengals +1.5

Other games I bet: SF -6.5, something is off with the 49ers but we can keep praying they turn it on one week and destroy a team, maybe it comes this week vs a division rival. Min -5.5 —feels like a sucker bet but I’ll take the bait and bet against Will Levis. Packers -5.5 — same thing as above, but the Bears might all hate each other and their QB specifically? I took the Lions on a huge spread as well, it’s a ton of points to lay so with these bonus picks, play what you feel!

Good luck this week.