I love football in all of its forms. I love when two top quarterbacks are dueling, a showdown between the best offense and the best defense, two plucky underdogs trying to make a name for themselves; I love it all. But there’s always that one Thursday Night game that is hard to love. A game that steals your car and crashes it. A game that shows up at your parent’s house uninvited and tells them you went missing. Ladies and gentlemen, I think we have that game.

If you love storylines about Sean Payton, this one’s for you. But I could give a damn about a coach who won a Super Bowl fifteen years ago and has done nothing but piss people off since. In Denver, he’s drafted the “perfect prospect” in Bo Nix and he’s ready to seek revenge against his former franchise, the New Orleans Saints, for… some reason? Damn, even the revenge narrative doesn’t have a ton of juice. 

If you like my picks, make sure you lock in your bet using the widgets below!

Denver Broncos (-3) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 37.5

We have a few things to go over before we can properly handicap this game. Let’s start with the Broncos. Bo Nix has been a little better than okay on offense this season, but it’s been enough to win some games thanks to an elite defense. But the defense is missing its star in this one as All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II will miss the game with a concussion.

But coverage shouldn’t be a problem in this one. The Saints are tapping rookie 5th-round QB Spencer Rattler to start this one, with incumbent QB Derek Carr missing several weeks with an oblique injury. On top of that, New Orleans will be without its top two WRs, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and their favorite gadget QB/TE hybrid, Taysom Hill. They’re also missing several key pieces along their offensive line, especially in the middle. Expect to see a lot of 12 personnel and WRs you’ve never heard of in this one. 

With both teams missing explosive playmakers on their strong side of the ball, it’s hard to believe anyone will move the ball efficiently in this game. It’s going to be a gross, sweaty, ugly football game, and I will watch virtually every second of it.

Pick: Under 37.5 Total Points

One playmaker still stands on the New Orleans offense, though. Alvin Kamara is having a vintage career year for the Saints with new OC Clint Kubiak. He’s third in the league in yards from scrimmage and will be the only weapon remaining upright for the game. But if Denver stacks the box, it may prove tough for him to run behind a makeshift offensive line. 

So we’re going to take his receiving yards over. Spencer Rattler will utilize him as a safety blanket when the pocket collapses, and he needs to get the ball out quickly. They may not be for huge gains, but Kamara should see double-digit targets in this one. 

Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 36.5 Receiving Yards