There’s some bad football going on in the league right now. Last season, the Commanders had the second overall pick with four wins. This season, the Bears have four wins, have lost ten straight games, and are the ninth pick. The cast of underperforming teams in the NFL continues to grow. This is causing many of these late-season matchups to become unentertaining skirmishes, with a few high-stakes matchups peppered in throughout. Not to mention the holiday schedule has sucked out a lot of the playoff teams that would add some spice to the Sunday slate. But after a holiday of eating, drinking, and being merry, we’re being force-fed a bland salad of football.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5), O/U 46.5

The Bills are running out of incentives for this season. The Chiefs clinched the top seed in the AFC on Wednesday, and if they get one more win the Bills will clinch the 2-seed. With all likeliness, they’ll try to win this one, stay healthy, and then rest their players next week in lieu of a bye in the playoffs. So in a weird way, I expect the Bills to come out firing to give Josh Allen’s MVP case one last exclamation point to make up for the exposure Jackson got during the holidays. But I think that impact will be felt early in the game and then peter out.

Pick: Buffalo -5.5 First Half Spread

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) O/U 38.5

The Eagles are still over a touchdown favorite despite not having starting quarterback Jalen Hurts for this matchup. That’s because the Cowboys will also be missing their biggest offensive weapon, Ceedee Lamb. Neither team is playing for much here, although the Eagles can lock up the division with one more win this season. Their main concern is to get healthy for the playoffs. I expect a lot of Kenny Pickett handing the ball off to Saquon Barkley, a shortened game from the run, and not a lot of points scored on Sunday.

Pick: Under 38.5 Total Points

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 37.5

Whether or not they should, the Raiders keep trying to win football games. They had the inside track to the first overall pick until they defeated the Jaguars last week. Now, they’re looking at the 6th overall pick, but Antonio Pierce claims he’s not concerned over picks. The Saints were the first team this season to get shut out last week. That game was against the Packers who are classes above both of these teams, but I think the Raiders edge out the reeling Saints in this one anyways. The Saints will do the right thing and tank.

Pick: Las Vegas -1.5

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) @ New York Giants, O/U 40.5

The Colts are too undisciplined and inconsistent to be 7.5-point favorites over anybody. But once again, we find ourselves getting an advantageous number with a team that has quit on the season in the Giants. So rather than put my faith in an inconsistent team or a team that has quit, I’ll take a prop. Last week, when Anthony Richardson struggled in the passing game, Shane Steichen handed the game to Jonathan Taylor, who had a breakout performance. I expect that to be the script again as they need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 100.5 Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8), O/U 48.5

The Panthers lost Chuba Hubbard for the rest of the season, which is a big blow to this lineup. The run game opened up the play action for Bryce Young, and now they face one of the league’s best-run defenses. If the Panthers make any noise in this one, it will all be because of Young’s arm. On the other hand, the Bucs need a win to stay alive in the NFC South race. I like the Bucs to take care of business here, but I don’t know if I can trust them to cover -8. Instead, I’d throw them in a teaser with Philadelphia.

Pick: Tampa Bay in a Teaser

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), O/U 39.5

Once again, I don’t see how anyone can think critically about a matchup in a Jaguars game. They’re hosting the Tennessee Titans, and both of these seasons are going nowhere. They’re both rolling out backup quarterbacks and jockeying for draft positions. There may be some flash plays in this game to get players over some incentive bonuses in their contracts and to audition for a roster spot in the coming season, but there will be very little juice in this matchup. I would take the Under if anything, and rely on two bad teams to be bad.

Pick: Under 39.5

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 33.5

For the second game in a row, we have a matchup of two backup quarterbacks. The Dolphins are rolling out Snoop Huntley or maybe Skylar Thompson for the injured Tua Tagovailloa. The Browns are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the injured (or benched?) Jameis Winston. I have no ill will toward DTR, and I thought he was electric to watching college, however he may be the worst NFL quarterback in the league. The offense turns completely vanilla with him in the lineup, and they can’t move the ball on a league-average, or even bad, defense. I hope DTR has a long, happy, fulfilling life, but I will not bet on him to win a football game.

Pick: Cleveland Browns Under 14.5 Total Points

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-1), O/U 48.5

There will be no sharper line this weekend than this pseudo-playoff matchup between division rivals. Both of these teams have what it takes to make a run in the playoffs, and they need this game to beef up their chances of getting an advantageous schedule. The only thing I can give you here is that in a coin-flip game, I would take the better quarterback, run game, offensive line, and healthier team. Those all belong to Green Bay.

Pick: Green Bay Moneyline