I’m no stud when it comes to spicy food. I love my buffalo wings, but I never stray past medium. I add a little jalapeno and red pepper to my chili, but it’s not something that jumps up and hits you in the face. I like a nice slow burn in my food, where it starts mild and picks up over time.

That’s what we should also expect with this weekend’s NFL slate. The action can’t go any lower than the Thursday Night snooze we endured. The beginning group of games doesn’t pack a lot of punch, but the later in the day we get, we’ll get some of the best, most delicious matchups we’ll see all season. Maybe have a glass of milk on hand.

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below.

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-3), O/U 43.5

The Panthers are favored in a game for the first time in nearly two years. Bryce Young has been scrappy after his midseason benching. The Chiefs needed a game-winning field goal drive to beat them, the Bucs needed overtime, and they were one drive away from upsetting the Eagles. Now, they play a reeling Cowboys team that has been playing better defense of late.

But if you give me three points against a team that hasn’t been favored in two years, I’m sorry I have to take the points.

Pick: Dallas +3

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 43.5

If you thought the Panthers’ streak was embarrassing, this 12-win Chiefs team hasn’t covered a spread in two months. That’s why all the money has been on Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns this week. But in reality, every game Jameis plays has high variance because of his propensity to commit turnovers. The Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes are the perfect team to take advantage of something like this and close the back door behind them.

Pick: Kansas City -4.5

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-3), O/U 46.5

The Dolphins are clinging to their playoff chances in this one. They desperately need a win to save their season, and now they’re going to the underperforming, yet division-leading Houston Texans off a bye. I think Miami’s defense rises to the occasion and gets home against C.J. Stroud and his lackluster offensive line. I don’t think the Dolphins win outright, but I can definitely see them falling within the number.

Pick: Miami +3

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans, O/U 46.5

Early in the season, many people (including myself) touted the Tennessee defense as one of the best units in the league. That hasn’t led to many wins because their offense and special teams have been a complete disaster. The Bengals can only beat bad teams this year, and I don’t see this one being any different. The Bengals will overwhelm the Titans’ defense, and this one will be over early. The Bengals are determined to stack wins down the stretch to save their lost season.

Pick: Cincinnati -5.5

Washington Commanders (-7.5) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 43.5

The Commanders were the hottest team in the league to start the season, but the wheels fell off when they dropped three straight games to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys. Now, they’re feeling the pressure of the Rams trying to sneak into the playoffs behind them. But this week they’re coming off a bye and playing the Saints, who will be starting their third-string quarterback with an interim Head Coach. I think the Commanders probably cover, but I want to see this offense click again before I put my hard-earned money on it. I love them in a teaser leg this week. I would pair them with the Seahawks or the Bills.

Pick: Washington in a teaser

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 40.5

This is one of the few times this season the Jaguars will be coming off a win. Mac Jones and company upset the Titans last week, and now they’re facing another one of the most disgraceful teams in the league. The way Aaron Rodgers has been playing this season, I don’t know how you can lay over a field goal on the road against anybody.

Pick: Jacksonville +3.5

Baltimore Ravens (-16) @ New York Giants, O/U 42.5

Speaking of disgraceful, the Ravens are laying 16 points on the road against the New York Giants. Any algorithm or line model will say this is too many points. However, they don’t take into consideration that the Giants have completely quit on this season. They’re being coached like they’re jockeying for draft position, and have Tommy DeVito back under center with Drew Lock in a walking boot. My idea here is that the Ravens run the ball and try to leave MetLife healthy. Meanwhile, the Giants will just wave the white flag.

Pick: Under 42.5 Total Points

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-4.5)

The battle of the horses is the highlight of the early slate. These teams are competing for the 7th spot in the AFC playoff race, and whoever wins this game will have an inside track to make it. I like how Bo Nix and the Broncos have been playing this season, but I do not understand this line at all. Not only do I have the Colts covering the 4.5 spread, but I have them winning the game outright.

Pick: Indianapolis Moneyline

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3), O/U 45.5

Both of these teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Baker Mayfield has been struggling with turnovers in recent weeks and letting teams like the Panthers and the Raiders back into the game. He can’t do that this week against the league’s best-scoring defense. I think the Chargers hold the Bucs in check, but the spread might be a bit too big. In a big spot, gun-slinging Mayfield will limit mistakes and fall within the number.

Pick: Tampa Bay +3

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals, O/U 46.5

The Cardinals are circling the drain after dropping three straight games. They were leading the division and now they are unlikely to make the playoffs. They’re still rated highly in the market, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull away from the Patriots, who are playing good football with Drake Maye under center. I think Maye will be able to move the ball, but the Patriots still lack the defense required to win the game outright.

Pick: New England +6

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), O/U 43.5

This is where the heat starts picking up. Both of these teams are firmly in the playoff picture and are now trying to get the best seed possible in the postseason. The Steeler’s offense has come alive with Russell Wilson, but they’ll be without George Pickens for a second straight game. They also have struggled all season with stopping the run, which is Philadelphia’s favorite thing to do. The Eagles will run all over the Steelers this week and win the battle of Pennsylvania handily.

Pick: Philadelphia -5.5

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (-2.5), O/U 54.5

The Bills lost a heartbreaker last week in possibly the game of the year in the NFL. The Rams exposed the game plan to beat this Bills team and won despite six touchdowns and no turnovers from Josh Allen. I expect this one to be a little different from last week’s shootout despite being against the juggernaut Detroit Lions. This could be a Super Bowl preview, so both teams will play tight, efficient football and try to keep the ball out of each other’s hands. It could get loose late, but in the beginning, both of these teams will try to take advantage of long methodical drives.

Pick: Under 54.5 Total Points