Sunday was a bountiful supply of top-notch football, from the Jets’ latest implosion to Josh Allen ending the Chiefs’ perfect season. The Steelers beat the Ravens with a bunch of paper cuts, and the Packers continued to torment the Bears. The Chargers and the Bengals kept the energy well into the night, and now we get to the NFL’s two drunk cousins from Texas square up on Monday Night. I don’t have much faith that they will put a proper bow on this football weekend, but I guess I’ll give them a shot.

Houston Texans (-7) @ Dallas Cowboys, O/U 41.5

The Cowboys are still in freefall after intentionally blinding their own players with the sun to lose games. We’re probably not seeing Dak Prescott for the rest of the season or Mike McCarthy after this season. After a 12-5 record and winning the division last season, they now sit at a paltry 3-6 and are touchdown dogs at home to the Texans. The Cowboys might be the least fun team going right now.

The Texans are no sure thing either. They suffered a devastating loss to the Lions on Sunday Night Football last week, and the offense hasn’t looked good in several weeks. The offensive line is lackluster, and CJ Stroud is the second-most sacked quarterback this season. Micah Parsons is back in the fold for the Cowboys and could cause problems for this offense all day long. We’ve seen teams get smacked around all season and still get up off the mat in a big spot. This might be a last-gasp shot for the Cowboys, where I don’t think they’ll win, but I think they can keep it close. Plus, if you believe in stupid statistics, no team has covered the spread the week after they play the Lions this season.

Pick: Dallas +7, try to find 7.5

The Hot Weekend Comes To a Close

This matchup doesn’t scream points to me. I’ve already told the tale of Dallas’ collapse and Houston’s struggling offense. Both of these teams are trying to run the ball and eat the clock in a close game. Dallas is giving Rico Dowdle the lead-back role for the remainder of the season and Joe Mixon has been dominant for the Texans this season. Both of these defenses are susceptible to the run game, but they can also stand them up if they sell out to stop it. I’m seeing some long drives for a field goal and three-and-outs on tap.

The one thing that scares me about this under is that Nico Collins is back in the Texans’ lineup. His connection with Stroud was better than any other tandem in the league to start the year, and the offense was way better with him in the lineup. However, I won’t overvalue his addition to the lineup in just the first game back off of his injury.

Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below each section.