We’ll never complain about a profitable week, but 3-2 left a lot to be desired last week after a promising start. No need to harp on it, but if you were to tell me Green Bay would completely dominate the Texans at home and hold Cj Stroud to 86 yards and not cover, I don’t think I’d believe you. Anyway, the story of the season on the field continues to be injuries while the story in the betting streets has been domination by the public. Let’s win some more money

NYJ -7 @ NE
I just can’t seem to quit the Jets, no matter how much of a joke they may be. Jets/Mets/Knicks fans, having almost 0 relevancy in actually being competitive in the last 10 years, are the most delusional in sports—they celebrate winning a playoff round (sometimes winning the first game of an NBA season) like it’s a championship and have only been to two championships in my lifetime, neither won, and one of those was 25 years ago. While I almost feel bad for them, I’m reminded how insufferable their fanbase is and how hilarious it is to be in one of the greatest cities in the world without being able to ever compete for the ultimate title (unless you smartly chose to be a Yankees fan).

That said, the Jets will probably win by 6 to save their season but piss off all the betters. I am expecting this team to step up, fight for their season, and dismantle an inferior opponent, similar to the Eagles bet last week. This season, home division dogs like the Pats are 3-9-1 ATS and have only covered at 38% over the past two seasons. The Jets’ defense hasn’t been great and isn’t particularly healthy, but while Drake Maye has shown some sparks, this is do-or-die for New York.

With the Patriots returning from London after getting embarrassed by another bad team, not taking a bye week, and possibly turning on their coach after being called “soft,” I’m hoping the Jets handle business and deliver. Let’s go with NYJ -7.

IND +5.5 @ HOU

This is a scary spot given Anthony Richardson doesn’t look very good. We’ll want Jonathan Taylor back here to give us a boost. Houston has struggled recently, and returning home may help, but losing Nico Collins has limited their offense. He’s averaged over 100 yards per game in his last four against Indy. Although it doesn’t feel like it, if the Colts win, they’ll tie for the division lead. Home division favorites are 7-8 ATS this year and 45% since 2015. The Colts are 6-1-1 ATS, while Houston is 1-2 at home ATS. I’m backing the Colts +5.5.

Atl -2.5 @ TB 

The fishiest of lines, staying under the field goal, and I’m taking the bait. Atl got blown out last week, but box-score-wise it wasn’t as bad as it looked. The obvious analysis here is that TB lost arguably their two most important offensive weapons. These teams met a few weeks ago in a back and forth affair, and I’m expecting this to be more one sided. The line flipped here, meaning the Bucs were favorites prior to Monday night, which usually indicates we should take the Bucs. However, because it flipped due more to injuries than money, I feel more comfortable sticking with the Falcons. Add on that it’s a short week for TB, I just need to ride with what I know will be a huge public play because I can’t imagine anybody will be on the Bucs, ATL -2.5.

CLE +9.5 vs BAL

Deshaun Watson’s EPA has been among the worst in the league, so no QB change should be worse for the Browns. Cleveland’s defense and offensive line is getting healthier, and Lamar Jackson is 13-18-1 ATS as a 7+ point favorite. I’ll take the divisional home dog here. Browns +9.5.

CHI -2.5 @ WAS

I mean there’s no real analysis this year. I don’t believe in the Commandos at all without Jayden Daniels, even if their backup is serviceable which is questionable at best. The Bears defense is playing great, their offense has come to life, and they should be rested and ready to go. I bet this with the assumption Jayden isn’t playing, which  is baked into the number but if you want to wait on the news, it’s understandable. I still think Chicago can cover this even with Daniels playing, unless of course we’re still underrating Washington and they’re actually the best team in the NFC. I think Caleb Williams is really coming on and I expect Washington’s defense to struggle. I’m putting in CHI -2.5

DAL +4.5 @ SF

Another one of my favorite teams! Betting on the Cowboys and Jets feels almost as disgusting as giving 5 of my best picks as all road teams. Again, this is just injury based and I think 4.5 is a lot of points to ask SF to cover without some of their key weapons. Players matter and the 49ers have lost several good ones. If Deebo misses, Purdy will be missing over 50% of his career offensive production in weapons. Add on the fact that it could be a buy low spot after the Cowboys were hilariously dismembered in front of the entire country, McCarthy is 13-3-1 ATS out of a bye, and Dak on the road off a loss is 74% ATS. Underdogs .500 or better after scoring 10 points or less in their last game are 66% ATS. Dallas should be healthier with the week of rest, and I think it’s pretty good spot for them to play decently. Dal +4.5

Best of luck out there this weekend!