Some weeks serve as a reminder to stay humble, and last week was one of them. It was my worst week in over a year, ending with a 1-4 record (2-4 with the bonus pick). But there’s no need to panic—we’ll get back on track this week. Sure, there were some tough breaks, but no excuses. Let’s refocus, jump back in the saddle, and turn things around with a winning week ahead.

NE +7 vs HOU

Let’s start with the ugliest bet we can make: a rookie QB making his first start, with no offensive line, going up against a Super Bowl contender. What could possibly go wrong? CJ Stroud’s numbers in a small sample size drop significantly without Nico, and he’s also performed much better at home than on the road, which gives us a little more confidence here. This is a big “luck rankings” game, with the advantage going to the Patriots. Will the QB change light a fire under NE and lead to a tough performance? I think so. Let’s lock in the Pats here—we’re NOT scared (okay, maybe a little). I’m waiting to see if the line moves to 7.5, but I’ve already taken the Patriots at +7.

GB -5 vs ARI

While both teams are coming off wins, Green Bay was fortunate to escape with theirs, and Jordan Love hasn’t been overly impressive. Even with wins in mind, I think this is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot for both teams. The Cardinals are unpredictable week to week, and this spread is definitely big for such a volatile team. With the Cards dealing with injuries on the offensive line and the Packers’ defense getting healthier, there’s a good chance to force a few turnovers from Kyler and cover this number. Let’s go with Packers -5.

LAC -2.5 at Den

From what I’ve seen, opinions on this game are split. A lot of professionals are leaning toward Denver with the points. The Broncos’ defense is legit, but I expect the Chargers’ defense to step up coming off the bye and shut down Denver’s rookie QB. With Joe Alt returning healthy and Herbert getting some much-needed rest, I’m feeling more confident in the Chargers delivering a strong performance, especially after holding their own against the Chiefs. Give me Jim Harbaugh off the bye, and let’s roll with the division favorite on the road. Chargers -2.5.

DET -3 at DAL

This might be another public play, even with Detroit on the road, but we’ve still got Goff playing indoors, and something just seems off in Dallas right now. I’m not overthinking this one: Detroit is coming off a bye, they’re stronger in the trenches, Dallas is dealing with injuries at key positions, and there’s a bit of a revenge factor after last year’s game, where the refs gifted Dallas the win. I’m backing the Lions here at -3.

Carolina +6.5 vs ATL

Full disclosure: I wanted a fifth game. I considered the Bengals, but the hook is making me nervous, and I know sharp money is on the Giants. Do I want to take Carolina? No. Do they cover often? Not really. But there’s value in this number with the Panthers at home in a division game. Yes, the Panthers are bad and banged up, but the line reflects that. If you decide to fade this, you’re not alone. I’m going back to the well in an obvious buy-low, sell-high spot. I plan to watch 0 seconds of this game and just hope for a backdoor cover. Panthers +6.5.

Bonus pick:

I’m taking the Bengals -3.5 on the road. Daniel Jones has been playing well, and the Giants are a tough team, with sharp money leaning their way, so I’m not making this an official pick. Still, if the Bengals’ defense can manage a couple of stops, their high-powered offense should be able to outpace a quarterback who doesn’t typically excel at home or in prime time.