Stop me if you’ve heard this before: This is a must-win game for the New York Jets. At 2-4, it seems the Jets’ season will be hanging in the balance when they head down to Pittsburgh for a Sunday night matchup with the 4-2 Pittsburgh Steelers. Coming on the heels of three straight horrific losses to the Broncos, Vikings, and Bills, the Jets are staring down the barrel of missing the postseason for the 14th consecutive year. In their first game sans Robert Saleh, Gang Green was up to their old tricks in Week 6. They failed to stop the run, committed far too many penalties, and were piss-poor in the red zone. Aaron Rodgers continues to look old and has been consistently battered behind an offensive line that has not lived up to the preseason hype. Something needs to change on Sunday night. The Jets cannot continue to play sloppy, undisciplined football if they want to be a playoff team at the end of the year. Luckily, the Jets have bolstered their already impressive receiving corps in the form of All-Pro Davante Adams. It’s unclear how Adams will help an abysmal run defense, terrible special teams play, or the cascade of penalty flags that fall over Jets players on a weekly basis, but it is abundantly clear that Adams is a superstar and has played his best football with Aaron Rodgers. The duo have put up historic numbers together, amassing over 7,500 yards and 69 touchdowns, and they will be looking to recreate the magic they had in Green Bay in a Jets uniform. If nothing else, lining up Adams and Garrett Wilson together on the same field will make the Jets difficult to defend and objectively more dynamic in the pass game.

On the Pittsburgh side, we are going to get our first look at Russell Wilson in the black and gold. The 35-year-old Wilson is set to replace Justin Fields under center for the first time since the pair signed with the Steelers in the offseason. The timing of the move has left more than a few people scratching their heads, but it is clear the frequent stagnation of the Pittsburgh offense so far this year prompted the change, despite the four wins it helped produce. Russell Wilson is coming off a very underwhelming tenure in Denver, where he went 11-19 as a starter. At one point, Wilson was inarguably one of the best quarterbacks in football and was elite at buying time with his legs behind the line of scrimmage. Mobility hindered by age and leg injuries, Wilson will likely still offer more consistency in the passing game than the erstwhile Fields. He will have his hands full with a Jets pass defense that ranks in the top 5 in nearly every category and will undoubtedly be looking to pressure a rusty quarterback in his first game back. Luckily for Wilson, he will likely have plenty of opportunities with short fields thanks to the ferocity of the Steeler defense. TJ Watt may be playing his best football this year and will be salivating at getting a chance to go up against an underwhelming Jets O-line.

There are a lot of variables swirling around in this matchup: New quarterback, old quarterback, new receiver, intense desperation, and two elite defenses. All of that adds up to very little scoring. Expect a lot of punts, stalled drives, and quarterback sacks this evening and feel comfortable taking the under.

Some Picks for Jets Fans

Everyone—and I mean everyone—will have their eyes glued to Davante Adams during this game. He and Aaron Rodgers were absolutely unstoppable in Green Bay, and everyone knows how Rodgers feels about “his guys.” I do expect Adams to immediately have an impact because he is insanely gifted and seems to have some sort of psychic connection with his quarterback. However, the increased attention will also come from the Pittsburgh defense, which will insist on not letting Adams beat them, especially in the red zone. This should open up plenty of opportunities for Garrett Wilson to find room in the secondary. I am going to give you a trifecta of picks that I consider locks. 1) Garrett Wilson over receiving yards 2) Garrett Wilson to score 3) Adams over receptions

A Pick for Steelers Fans

This pick feels so obvious it makes me a little nervous, but I don’t see a world in which it doesn’t hit. Russell Wilson will be rusty, and the Jets can’t stop the run. I just don’t foresee a world where Pittsburgh throws the ball 30-40 times. They will be pounding the rock and pounding it often. Najee Harris is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Raiders, rushing for 106 yards with a touchdown and averaging over 7 yards per carry. His rushing over is under 60 yards and should be an easy cash.