Why should anyone really put a ton of faith in Trojan football? This is a program that lost five of its last seven games in 2023 despite having a Heisman Trophy winner (Caleb Williams) under center. This is a program that hasn’t finished the season top 10 since 2016, a program that has won only four bowl games since Pete Carroll was gum-chewing the sidelines 15 years ago.

Carroll successor Lane Kiffin wasn’t that guy. And neither was Steve Sarkisian, nor Clay Helton.

But Lincoln Riley could be that guy, at least enough guy to lead No. 23 USC past No. 13 LSU (-4-point favorites at DraftKings) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday.

Reasons? For one, third-year coach Riley finally seems to have gotten into his thick play-calling head that USC won’t return to national prominence by simply outscoring everyone else. Riley brought in new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who transformed UCLA into a stalwart against the run. Eric Henderson, who helped coach the LA Rams to the 2022 Super Bowl title, takes over the D-line.

New linebackers coach Matt Entz led North Dakota State to two FCS Division I championships as head coach, and new DBs coach Doug Belk was defensive coordinator at Houston for a couple of seasons.

Getting defensive-minded is a wise move, with USC now playing with the big boys in the Big 18 — uh, excuse us, Big Ten — and no longer being able to hide their unmet expectations in the Pac-12.

The likelihood that this rebranded USC defense shuts down LSU’s offense is nonexistent, however. The Tigers have one of the best offensive lines in the nation, with tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones projected to go in the first round of next year’s NFL draft. QB Garrett Nussmeier replaces 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels but looked good in the bowl game victory over Wisconsin to cap last season.

Call us crazy (or worse), but we’re going SC in this one. Miller Moss is going to sound more like a QB than a house paint color on Sunday. He has a bowl game victory under his belt already, and he has one of the more explosive players in the country to throw to — wide receiver Zachariah Branch.

Branch is just as dangerous on kick returns. Last season, he averaged 70 yards per game on returns.

And as strong as LSU’s offensive line is, that doesn’t translate over to the defense. The Bayou Bengals gave up 417 yards and 28 points per game last season while ranking 98th in the nation in giving up 6.23 yards per play. That should improve under new DC Blake Baker, but we’re saying it won’t have improved enough by Sunday.

Yeah, we’re calling the Trojans in an upset. New defensive focus, a neutral field and a Big Ten mindset. I mean, after all, USC has to eventually return to the top 10, right?