The first preseason games are less than a month away and maybe you’ve got a renewed confidence. Your team drafted well, they surprised in 2024, your QB is having a great offseason.

So what? Historical trends will throw your optimism into the dumpster. There are a handful of simple reasons why you will be once again saying “maybe next year” in January.

Under .500 record? You’re out

Only five teams have finished below .500 and won the SB the next year:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9 in 2019)
• Philadelphia Eagles (7-9 in 2016)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-10 in 1980)
• New England Patriots (5-11 in 2000)
• St. Louis Rams (4-12 in 1998)

That’s five out of 58 Super Bowls, an 8.6% rate.

The teams that finished under .500 in the 2023 season were the Jets, Patriots, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Titans in the AFC; and the Cardinals, Giants, Commanders, Vikings, Bears, Falcons and Panthers in the NFC.

Super Bowl runner-up? You’re out

Only three SB losers have won it the following season — the 1971 Cowboys, 1972 Dolphins and 2018 Patriots. That’s only 5 percent of all Super Bowls played.

Sorry, 49ers, you’ve got great players, but they can’t overcome history.

Rookie QB? You’re out

A first-year quarterback has never won the Super Bowl. In fact, no rookie QB has even reached the big game. If preseason projections play out, that rules out:

• Commanders (Jayden Daniels)
• Broncos (Bo Nix)
• Patriots (Drake Maye)
• Vikings (J.J. McCarthy)
• Bears (Caleb Williams)

We had already ruled these teams out because of their sub-.500 records in 2023, but starting rookies under center only cements that they won’t be hoisting the Lombardi in February.

Dome team? You’re out

Only four teams whose homes are domes have won the Super Bowl:

• 2022 Los Angeles Rams
• 2009 New Orleans Saints
• 2006 Indianapolis Colts
• 1999 St. Louis Rams

That rules out these teams for 2025: Cardinals, Falcons, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, Raiders, Chargers, Rams, Vikings, Saints.

The 5-year QB rule

Only three quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl in their sixth year or beyond as a starter for their current team — the Giants’ Phil Simms in 1997, the Colts’ Peyton Manning in 2007 and the Broncos’ John Elway in 1998 and 1999.

The qualifier to this rule is that some quarterbacks won titles AFTER their fifth year IF they already had won it (like Brady, Montana, etc).

Some of the greatest QBs won their first title fast: Tom Brady in his first year as a starter, Patrick Mahomes in his second year, Joe Montana in his second year, Roger Staubach in his first year, etc.

This ‘rule’ is important this season, because the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson will be in his sixth season. Yes, he was the 2023 NFL MVP, but he also has been very mediocre in the playoffs with a 2-4 career playoff record.

The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is another guy who puts up big numbers in the regular season but then implodes in the playoffs — he’s 2-5 in the postseason and will be entering his 9th season.

The Bills’ Josh Allen will be in his seventh season and has been a roller coaster in the playoffs, sometimes looking unworldly but then also making real boneheaded decisions. He’s 5-5 in the playoffs.

Thus, we’ve just ruled out three of the best teams in the NFL and perennial contenders. But Jackson, Prescott and Allen just haven’t gotten it done in the playoffs. Allen has the misfortune of having to play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs nearly every year, so maybe we give him a bit of a break.

No future Hall of Famer at QB? You’re out

Of the 58 Super Bowl winning teams, 46 have been won by future HOF QBs – either those who got voted in after they retired or those who most certainly will be voted in when they become eligible:

Voted In:

• Bart Starr (2 rings)
• Joe Namath
• Len Dawson
• Johnny Unitas
• Roger Staubach (2)
• Bob Griese (2)
• Terry Bradshaw (4)
• Ken Stabler
• Joe Montana (4)
• Troy Aikman (3)
• Steve Young
• Brett Favre
• John Elway (2)
• Kurt Warner
• Peyton Manning (2)

Locks to get in:

• Tom Brady (7)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2)
• Drew Brees
• Aaron Rodgers
• Patrick Mahomes (2)

Have a great chance:

• Russell Wilson
• Matt Stafford
• Eli Manning (2)

We rule out these teams, whose QBs are not likely to reach Canton based on their lack of track record and/or inability to win the big game:

• Geno Smith (Seahawks)
• Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
• Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
• Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
• Jared Goff (Lions)
• Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)
• Kirk Cousins (Falcons)
• Derek Carr (Saints)
• Baker Mayfield (Bucs)
• Deshaun Watson (Browns)
• Aidan O’Connell (Raiders)

Let’s review: Who’s out, who’s still in

According to our little totally unscientific ‘rules’, these 27 teams will not win the Super Bowl in 2025:

Bears, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Bucs, Cardinals, Chargers, Colts, Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, Giants, Jets, Lions. Panthers. Patriots. Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Saints, Seahawks, Texans, Titans, Vikings.

These five teams still have a shot: Chiefs, Packers, Steelers, Bengals and Jaguars. Can Mahomes and KC pull off a three-peat? Can Jordan Love continue his rise? Can Russell Wilson resurrect his career in Pittsburgh? Can Joe Burrow stay healthy? Can Trevor Lawrence live up to his potential finally?

All great questions. Let’s see how it all plays out!