They can’t keep getting away with this! The Kansas City Chiefs narrowly escaped the Cincinnati Bengals last week on a questionable pass interference call to gift-wrap them a field goal to win the game. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons pulled off the craziest upset of the season on the Philadelphia Eagles when Saquon Barkley’s turned into cinder blocks, causing him to drop an easy pass to seal the victory (even though we still cashed his receptions prop).

It appears both of these teams were pinching a horseshoe in their cheeks. But who’s luck will spill over into Sunday Night Football? If you agree with my picks, lock them into the widgets below!

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46.5

Although the Chiefs snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last week, they suffered a major casualty on offense. RB Isiah Pacheco is set to miss an extended time due to a fractured fibula. The Chiefs will attempt to replace him on aggregate Moneyball style with a platoon of Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Kareem Hunt, and Keaontay Ingram. This is a big deal because the run game has been the engine that drives the Kansas City offense for the last couple of seasons.

The Falcons defense also seemed to click last week in their upset of the Eagles. They didn’t let the Steelers score in week one, but in week two they proved that they had a solid unit. Atlanta is certainly live to pull off an upset here, but if I can get a full 3 points, or even a 3.5, I have to take it. Shop around and see if you can get the best line available. If you’re too late to the party, and the number is down to 2.5 I would still probably take the points because this is going to be a tight ball game.

Pick: Atlanta +3

Finding The Best Weapon On Offense

I don’t like taking unders on props. But I can’t pull out a ton of gold out of the dumpster when I’m looking at the player prop lines for this game. The Falcons will likely have to spread the ball around to move it successfully on this Chiefs defense, and they’re pretty stout against the run, which rules out RB Bijan Robinson for me.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, haven’t been able to get Travis Kelce going yet this year. I don’t trust Xavier Worthy’s limited usage despite his explosive upside, and I don’t think I’d be able to pick a winner in the run game even if I had inside information. What I do know is that the Chiefs are going to have to rely on WR Rashee Rice now more than ever while they figure out the rest of the offense. He’s gone over his line every week so far, which has made the books adjust it up. But I think if Kansas City is going to compete in this game, they’ll need 100 yards from Rice.

If you agree, lock in your bet with the widget below.

Pick: Rashee Rice Over 75.5 Receiving Yards