I think week seven of the NFL season is the week of the underdog. There’s only so much we can glean from the few games each team has played so far, and many teams are overcoming some injuries they were dealing with early in the season. 

In the David vs. Goliath matchups, I’m taking Dave. I’m going to the mom-and-pop diner instead of the corporate chain restaurant for brunch. I’m going with the Average Joe’s over Globo Gym. You get the jist of it.

And if you’re betting on these underdogs with me, lock your bets in with the widgets below!

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-3), O/U 43.5 

Yeah, why not start with this game? We’ve got a Super Bowl rematch, the battle for the NFC North, Texans, and Packers, but please let’s start with Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins against Anthony Richardson and/or Joe Flacco and the Colts.

This stupid game features two stupid teams who can’t decide who their stupid quarterback is. However, the Colts’ defense is so bad they make everyone look good. Tyler Huntley couldn’t move the ball against the Titans in their last game, but he’s had the bye to get better acquainted with the system. I think the Dolphins keep this one close.

Pick: Miami +3

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-1.5), O/U 50.5

Now that’s more like it! The NFC North is the first division since realignment in 2002 to have all four teams with a winning record through six weeks of the season. This matchup has the best offense in the league, the Lions, facing off against the best defense in the league, the Vikings. If that doesn’t get your jollies rolling, I don’t know what will.

Jared Goff has owned Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense in their matchups in the past. They also boast a seemingly unstoppable run game. Meanwhile, the Lions’ defense is a formidable unit on its own and should be able to slow down Minnesota even without Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit makes a statement here, but I also lean over the total. 

Pick: Detroit Moneyline

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-8.5), O/U 40.5

It looks like the newly acquired Amari Cooper will play for Buffalo after they traded for the WR on Tuesday morning. He should get plenty of attention from the defensive unit, even though they haven’t fully integrated him into the offense. This should force the defense to use fewer double teams on Dalton Kincaid, allowing him to create more separation and move the ball between the 20s.

Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41.5

You can’t talk about this game without bringing up Joe Burrow’s 1-5 record against the Cleveland Browns even though most of those games were against Cleveland teams that didn’t look like massive dumpster fires going into it. This one does, big time. But in recent weeks the Browns defense has been returning to last year’s form, and for the first time all season, they’ll have a healthy offensive line. 

Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s offense still isn’t clicking and has struggled to put teams like the Giants and Panthers away while losing outright to the Patriots.

Pick: Cleveland +5.5

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5), O/U 48.5

Let’s enjoy this battle of the “new guys in town.” CJ Stroud and Jordan Love are trying to climb into the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL. I felt like a crotchety old beat writer typing that sentence.

The Texans go as Joe Mixon goes. After a season of surviving one-score games, Joe Mixon has added a new dimension to this offense that allows them to be more efficient in the red zone. Green Bay’s defense is good but not great. And in years past they’ve been susceptible to the run. 

Pick: Joe Mixon Over 63.5 Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (-3), O/U 51.5

I expect these birdies to score this weekend, but the 51.5-point total already reflects that. I’m more bullish on Seattle’s ability to hang with Atlanta. Last week’s game in Carolina was the first time the Falcons played a more than one-score game.

Seattle is getting key pieces back in its defensive line, and despite leading the league in passing yards, Geno Smith has only thrown six touchdowns. I believe he’s in for some positive regression in that regard.

Pick: Seattle +3

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ New York Giants, O/U 42.5

I came into the season believing that Philadelphia was going to be the team to beat in the NFC with a pair of new coordinators and Saquon Barkley’s big burly man thighs. I was wrong. Nick Sirianni is still coaching this team like he won his job in a sweepstakes, and the secondary is getting beat by everybody.

The Giants are suffering a pile of injuries on their defensive line as well, which was just about the only thing they were doing well. But, with stud rookie Malik Nabers back in the lineup, I think they’ll keep up with Philly and maybe even win the damn ball game.

Pick: New York +3

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders (-9.5), O/U 51.5

I can’t stomach laying 9.5 points with the Commanders. But I get equally as gassy betting on the Panthers. I trust the Commanders to score a lot of points in this game, and I’m noncommittal about the Panthers doing the same. Washington also spread the ball around to several receivers and running backs in its high-octane offense.

However, they also let anyone run the ball on them, which has been one of Carolina’s strengths this season. Whether they’re getting blown out, or trying to keep up, I think the Panthers are going to be running the ball up and down the field with Chuba Hubbard.

Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams (-7), O/U 43.5

It’s the post-Davante Adams era in Vegas, and they’re also going to be without Jakobi Myers who was expected to pick up some of that slack. Now, they’re looking to the likes of Tre Tucker, DJ Turner, and Tyreik McAllister in their wide receiver room, yuck! It’s not such an issue when you land a stud tight end in the draft, who may already be the best tight end in the league. 

Pick: Brock Bowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers (-2), O/U 46.5

The main event! Last year’s Super Bowl rematch features the Chiefs and the team they keep kicking in the crotch year after year. Andy Reid is 21-4 straight up when the Chiefs are coming off of a bye. And it’s so easy to take Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.

But I’m not going to! I think the defenses will cancel each other out, while San Francisco’s offense provides a better edge than Kansas City’s. The 49ers get a small matter of revenge at home in this one.

Pick: San Francisco -2

And if you like my picks, make sure you lock them in with the widgets below each article!