This is the time of year when your season can go up in flames. One bad loss and you are all but eliminated from playoff contention, and this is weighing heavy on the minds of nearly every NFL player in the league right now. This is doubly true for NFC West teams packed into a tightly contested division where they are all struggling for separation. The stakes couldn’t be higher on Thursday Night Football, where the Rams take on the 49ers with their respective seasons on the line. Oh, this one is going to be delicious. 

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Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-3), O/U 49.5

The Rams are coming off one of the most exciting wins of the season over my Buffalo Bills. Their offense completely broke out in that game, and their defense held together enough to withstand one of the greatest quarterback performances in NFL history. Meanwhile, the 49ers showed some life again by dismantling the Bears despite a season full of countless injuries. Now, the 49ers are looking to carry the momentum into what is likely going to be their biggest matchup left on the season.

But this isn’t the Chicago Bears. The Rams have risen to the occasion in nearly all of their high-stakes matchups this season, and the fact they are catching a field goal is too much for me to resist. I expect the 3s to go away as we get closer to game time, especially with star OT Trent Williams ruled out. Grab a 3 if you can find one. If not, I would take the Rams on the moneyline. 

Pick: Los Angeles +3 or Moneyline

Who Do You Go To When It Matters Most?

The Rams’ offense came alive last week because Matt Stafford ran the offense through Puka Nacua. He spent the majority of the season dealing with injuries, but he’s finally healthy at the perfect time. The 49ers’ strength on defense is probably their secondary at this time, but they don’t have anyone in the lineup who is dynamic enough to shut down Nacua. You also see conceded efforts to get him open in space with McVay’s scheme and blocking on the perimeter.

The issue is that Nacua’s receiving prop is already lined at 88.5 receiving yards. When an elite receiver is lined this high, you’re already at risk of him falling short with a good performance. Rather than play it close to the line, I would add just a little more risk for a higher reward. If you expect Puka to his 89 yards, he’s nearly as likely to go over 100 yards. You might as well go for the + money price in that case. 

Pick: Puka Nacua Over 99.5 Receiving Yards