A lot of times, the original movie is far better than its sequels. Trilogies and major franchises like Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter are excused from this conversation. I’m talking about movies like The Hangover. The original was the pinnacle of comedy, and they tried to make a boatload of money by making nearly the exact same film three times. At some point, you reach a point of diminishing returns.

That’s what happened this week in the NFL when they put their best game of the week on Thursday Night Football. The Packers and Lions gave us all the show we were looking for, but now we’re stuck with a slate of games without a lot of firepower. I will say Shrek 2 was better than the original Shrek, so maybe there’s a chance we’re surprised.

If you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below!

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5), O/U 45.5

The Kirk Cousins bowl surprisingly features two teams in pole position for playoffs in the NFC, despite two quarterbacks struggling with turning the ball over. All eyes have been on these teams’ defenses week in and week out, but this game can potentially get loose. If some of those interceptions turn into touchdowns, then Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Jordan Addison, Drake London, and all the other elite offensive weapons could run the score up. 

Pick: Over 45.5 Total Points

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) @ New York Giants, O/U 40.5

Drew Lock is getting the start again for Big Blue in a lost season for them. The grass hasn’t been any greener for the Saints either, so both of these teams don’t have a huge motivational situation. The Saints lost Taysom Hill to injury last week, and he provided the only spark outside of Alvin Kamara for New Orleans’ offense. Meanwhile, Malik Nabers is nursing an injury and hasn’t been practicing for the Giants. This game will probably be a snooze fest no matter what happens. 

Pick: Under 40.5 Total Points

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5), O/U 40.5

This game has the same total as Saints/Giants but a totally different vibe. This is a divisional matchup with two quarterbacks who have something to prove. Will Levis has been erratic all season but has shown flashes that could lead to long-term success in the league. Mac Jones was cast off to Jacksonville to back up Trevor Lawrence and is trying to prove his worth. Plus, both of these defenses are susceptible to big plays.

Pick: Over 40.5 Total Points

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccanners (-6.5), O/U 46.5

The Bucs outlasted the Panthers in overtime last week while the Raiders became the latest victim to the Kansas City blood magic. The Bucs scratched tooth and nail back into the race for the NFC South, but they’re up against it after dropping both games to the Falcons earlier this season. They need to stack some wins in a hurry, but Baker Mayfield struggled with turnovers last game. I like Tampa Bay as a teaser leg in this one because I worry that the Raiders’ defense can keep this one close.

Pick: Tampa Bay in a teaser leg

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5), O/U 43.5 

I guess I like a lot of totals this week. I promise some spread picks are coming, just not here. Both the Browns and the Steelers have been involved in some crazy shootouts over the last couple of weeks. But at their cores, they want to play defense. I think they get back to running the ball and playing field position this week and stay away from points on the board.

Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13), O/U 45.5

The Eagles are feeling themselves after knocking off the Ravens in a huge spot last week. Obviously, they have significant talent advantages across the board on the Panthers, but it would be too easy to try to win the game with a conservative game plan and get on the bus healthy. However, they’re licking their chops at the thought that they could give Saquon Barkley 2,000 yards and potentially the MVP this season. The Panthers may be a sacrificial lamb along the way.

Pick: Philadelphia -13

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-6), O/U 44.5

Okay, don’t get mad; I have another total in this one. If I had to pick a side, it’d be Miami, but instead of laying the 6, I just paired them with Tampa Bay in a teaser. Both offenses have underperformed throughout the season, but have come on in recent weeks. Aaron Rodgers has been calling out the entire Jets organization and seems like he’s auditioning for another team for the rest of the season. The Jets’ defense has been notably worse since firing Robert Saleh, giving Miami the opportunity to show out in this one as well. 

Pick: Over 44.5 Total Points

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5), O/U 44.5

This is a win-or-go-home game in the NFC West. Two weeks ago, the Seahawks’ defense swallowed Kyler Murray whole and gave Seattle the lead in the division. I don’t see the situation changing now that the game is in Arizona. I’ll take the points with Seattle here, and I wouldn’t rule out Mike McDonald in the Coach of the Year race just yet. If he can lock up the division down the stretch, I think there’s a chance he could be rewarded for it.

Pick: Seattle +2.5, (Look for a 3)

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 43.5

The season has completely come off the rails for the 49ers, and last week was no exception. In a brutal snowstorm in Buffalo, they lost Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to IR. They continue to stack up an ungodly amount of injuries and now have to turn around and take on the Bears. Chicago just fired their Head Coach midseason for the first time in 102 years. I think this team will rally around the interim coach Thomas Brown and put together a strong performance on the road. San Francisco will still fight, but they might be too depleted of talent at this point in the season.

Pick: Chicago +3.5

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams, O/U 49.5

If I was an unbiased fan of football, I would probably lean toward the Rams in this game. The Bills have to travel across the country to play against a Sean McVay-led team desperate for a win to keep pace in their division. But I’m not an unbiased fan, I’m a Bills fan. If the Rams go shot for shot with Josh Allen, then the scoreboard will be lighting up quite a bit on Sunday. You just have to wonder if Matt Stafford is capable of running this offense behind a shaky offensive line. 

Pick: Over 49.5 Total Points