You’re walking through the jungle. You keep a hurried pace with fears that something is coming after you. You’re frequently spinning your head behind you to ensure they’re not closing in on your path to safety. The trees around you start to clear out, and you’re through the deepest, darkest part of the woods. You sigh of relief, and the knot in your chest begins to loosen. You take one step over a loose branch, and BOOM. You fall into a hidden pit covered up by some brush. That’s right, you’ve fallen for the trap.

I can’t be more on the nose than that about how I feel about this football game. But before we get into it, if you like the picks, lock them in with the widgets below each article. Cheers!

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 36.5

The Steelers stood up and beat their chests last week in their victory over division rival Baltimore Ravens. The win allowed them to take sole possession of first place in the AFC North and opened the possibility of the 1 seed if they can beat the Chiefs on Christmas. But before they get too far ahead of themselves, they need to take care of the Browns on the road in Cleveland.

The Steelers were my pick last week as underdogs at home, which is the exact situation you hunt for when handicapping a Mike Tomlin-coached team. However, this game sets up the situation you look for when you’re looking to bet against a Tomlin team. After an emotional and energy-sapping win last week, they now have to go to Cleveland in a sleepy spot against a team that historically has given them quite a few scares. I think Cleveland is live to win the game, but for the sake of this pick, I will go with them to cover the 3.5. Even if these two teams didn’t have their history, getting 3.5 points at home in a division game is too many for most squads.

Pick: Cleveland +3.5

Whether Or Not We’ll Have Weather

It’s November in Cleveland, so the weather was bound to be a talking point. Initial weather forecasts had this as a cold, blustery, and possibly snowy situation for Thursday Night, which has caused this total to drop from 41.5 to 36.5. Now, the weather seems like it might not be as bad as expected, and the total hasn’t adjusted back up yet.

Aside from any atmospheric consequences, the Browns offense has been taking shots downfield constantly now that Winston is under center. If they could get the Steelers into a situation where they’re chasing the Browns, we could easily see both teams score 20 points and get us over this total. 

Pick: Over 36.5 Total Points