Everybody deserves a little time off from the daily grind of their jobs. You can get bogged down from doing the same things every day, which can burn you out. NFL players in particular deserve a break, as their bodies are getting battered and bruised week in and week out. But six teams on a bye in late November is depriving us of a good football weekend in the meat of the season.

The Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, and Saints are all off this week. The Bills and Bengals are two of the best teams to watch play our beautiful game every week. The other four are responsible for some of the drunkest, confusing, and downright funky teams that play the game. Now, we have to go through the weekend with a skeleton crew of lopsided matchups. That won’t stop us from betting on it, but maybe space these bye weeks out a little better. 

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) @ New York Giants, O/U 41.5

The first game in the post-Danny Dimes era for the Giants will be hosting a Bucs team that needs to stack a couple of wins. Tommy DeVito takes over under center for Big Blue, but they may be without stud rookie WR Malik Nabers who’s nursing a groin injury. The Bucs are getting back future HOFer Mike Evans, but they remain a little banged up on the offensive line.

I think Baker does what it takes to win this game, but the Giants’ strength is in their D-line. They’ll be able to get home on Baker in the pocket and keep this game close. I like Tampa in a teaser, but I’d pick the Giants to fall within the number.

Pick: New York +6

Detroit Lions (-7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts, O/U 49.5

Anthony Richardson had a few weeks to sit down and think about what he’s done. He took himself out of the game on a crucial third-down situation because he was tired and Shane Steichen made him ride the bench for a while. Say what you want about the guy, but Richardson raising the ceiling of this offense and if the game is slowing down for him, like we saw last week against the Jets, then the Colts are live to win this game. Detroit lost another key piece on defense with Alex Anzalone hitting IR. I sprinkled a little Colts moneyline, but I love them against the spread this week.

Pick: Indianapolis +7.5

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-7.5), O/U 40.5

Every week I attempt to respect the Titans’ defense by taking them to cover a big number. However, their offense is a disaster and they sport the worst special teams unit in the league. When you’re a team that’s punting often, and you’re not even good at it, then that becomes too insurmountable for a good defense to overcome. The Texans need to run it up on a bad team after a couple of offensive duds in a row. I’d love to get a 7, but I’ll lay the 7.5 if I need to. This is also a great spot for a teaser.

Pick: Houston -7.5

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-7.5), O/U 46.5

Drake Maye looks like he may be a legitimate quarterback for years to come. I don’t think the betting market has caught up to his upside in this offense. Their receivers are not good, but they’re healthy. The Dolphins need to put a good offense together on the field if they’re going to try to play their way back into wildcard contention, so there might be a couple of unexpected fireworks in this game.

Pick: Over 46.5 Total Points

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (-10.5), O/U 45.5

The preseason line for this game was Dallas -3.5. Not only does this characterize how much of a disaster Dallas has been this season, but it also shows how impressive the Commanders have been. Believe it or not, the Cowboys somewhat moved the ball on a really good Houston defense last week. The Commanders’ unit is a step down from Houston, and everyone moves the ball on Dallas’ defense. This type of line movement makes me want to stay away from the spread, but I could see both teams putting points on the board in this one.

Pick: Over 45.5 Total Points

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 39.5

The Bears suffered yet another traumatic loss to the Packers last week, but the new offensive game plan gave the team a shred of hope. The problem is that the new game plan involves establishing the run with D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Caleb Williams, and the league’s best run defense is coming to town. I think we’re getting a discounted number on the Vikings this week after Chicago’s strong showing last week. 

Pick: Minnesota -3.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 42.5

The entire world watched the Chiefs suffer their first loss of the season at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Now, they get what many view as the worst team in the NFL to get back on the right track. Isaiah Pachecho will not be back for this game, and weirdly enough the Chiefs have not covered a spread in their last four games. Patrick Mahomes is also 0-3-1 against the spread as a double-digit road favorite. 

Pick: Don’t Bet On This Game But If You Do Bet on the Panthers I Guess

Denver Broncos (-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 41.5

Bo Nix has been climbing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds boards over the last few weeks. He’s heading into a hostile environment on the road in a division matchup. The Raiders are injured on both sides of the ball and have been reeling for weeks now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled out all of the stops and won this game. But I’m not interested in picking a side in this game. I think this one could get ugly with these two defensive wreaking havoc on each other.

Pick: Under 41.5 Total Points

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-1), O/U 47.5

People seem eager to crown the Cardinals as the team that will win the NFC West this season. The 49ers are struggling with their Super Bowl hangover, the Rams are a Jekyll and Hyde offense, and the Seahawks have put up a few stinkers in big spots. However, I think the Seahawks found something in the bye week, and that showed by them coming out and beating the 49ers last week. I think they keep their momentum this week and further muddy up the NFC West picture.

Pick: Seattle -1

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-3), O/U 46.5

This game was a pick ‘em early in the week, but the steam has been pushing the Packers out to a 3-point favorite because 49ers QB Brock Purdy hasn’t been practicing all week. I think this is an opportunity to take the better team getting three points in this matchup. Keep an eye on injury reports though, and bet this once we have as much information as possible. The number will collapse when Purdy is ruled in, so try to get it before the move.

Pick: San Francisco +3 (if Purdy is playing)

And if you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below each section!