Can we please get some fall weather? Last weekend, I walked outside in a light sweater to get some fresh air before rotting a hole in my couch watching football and was slammed in the face by a bright shining sun, birds who should be south already screaming in the trees, and oven-like 74 degrees temperatures. Old Navy is already shoving holiday commercials down my throat, and I can’t even leave the house in long pants. Don’t blame me for the O-Zone layer disappearing. I don’t use hair spray on my big, dumb, bald head and gave up Axe body spray when my girlfriend dumped me in 8th grade.

That being said, all weather is good football weather. If you like my picks, lock them in with the widgets below!

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 50.5

I love the way Baker Mayfield is playing this season, and I’ve taken the Bucs basically every week this season. Despite a depleted receiving core, he’s still leading the league in passing. The problem has been his defense and brain-dead Head Coach. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers are getting back reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, and they need to stack some wins to remain in the playoff race. Their defense is pretty injured and has been underwhelming for most of the year. So, two offenses primed to overperform, and two defenses that are struggling. You know what that means…

Pick: Over 50.5 Total Points

Buffalo Bills (-4) @ Indianapolis Colts, O/U 46.5

The last time the Buffalo Bills went 8-2 was in 1993. It was a year before I was born and their last Super Bowl appearance. They also haven’t won in Indianapolis since 1998. These statistics mean almost nothing for the game on Sunday, but at least you learned something.

The Bills will have a banged up receiving core in this one, with Keon Coleman ruled out, and questionable tags for Amari Cooper, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins. But the Colts allow the second most rushing yards in the league. Colts QB Joe Flacco can run an offense if he’s not dealing with too many blitzes, and the Bills’ defense blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. You know what that means…

Pick: Over 46.5 Total Points

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 46.5

The Saints finally fired their Head Coach Dennis Allen who ranked 32 out of 32 in my “Is this guy an idiot” ratings this season. You would expect the classic “Dead Coach Bounce” in this spot, but the Saints have signaled they may be packing it in this season by trading away several key players at the deadline.

Rather than mess around with the spread in this one, I’m going with a prop. The Saints allow buckets of rushing yards to whomever they face, and we’ve seen Atlanta use Tyler Allgeier to ensure Bijan Robinson doesn’t take too many hits during the regular season. I think if the Falcons are in control, you see both guys get a ton of work.

Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5), O/U 41.5

Despite Kansas City’s offense coming alive in recent weeks, thanks to a trade for DeAndre Hopkins, we’ve seen them play in plenty of close games week after week. I don’t know if they’ll have the fire power to pull too far away from Denver’s vaunted defense. They’ll put Pat Surtain II on Hopkins to keep him limited and their offense will do just enough to keep it close.

On top of that, divisional games are always closer than you think. Plus, Denver is on a normal travel schedule, while Kansas City spent last Monday Night in an overtime game against Tampa Bay. Now, they’ll be in a sleepy 1pm spot against a lesser opponent.

Pick: Denver +7.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders (-2.5), O/U 44.5

Everytime this number goes out to 3, there is a determined group of bettors who push it back down to 2.5. I disagree with this completely. The Commanders have shown up in big spots, have handled legitimate contenders and covered nearly every game this season.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s defense is getting a lot of credit for beating inferior opponents. I think Russell Wilson and the offense will continue to get better, but they will not be able to keep up with the Commanders. 

Pick: Washington -2.5

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 43.5

Trevor Lawrence is not likely to suit up in this one because “he’s sore.” This means he’s tired of playing for a terrible team with a terrible coach for yet another year. We’ll see Mac Jones waddle out on the field for the Jaguars in this one, and I wouldn’t expect fireworks. 

The Vikings handled the Colts on Sunday Night football last weekend, but it was a sloppy performance for Sam Darnold overall. I expect them to get back on track and potentially get Jags Head Coach Doug Pederson fired. 

Pick: Minnesota -6.5

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears (-6), O/U 38.5

Drake Maye has been solid for a completely disastrous Patriots team so far this season. He’s throwing the ball to mailmen and insurance salesmen trying their best to be NFL wide receivers. The defense couldn’t stop a runny nose and if Bill Belichick were dead, he’d be spinning in his grave about it. Instead, he’s having a mid-life crisis and dating a 23 year old woman. 

Caleb Williams has all the help in the world in terms of roster construction. But, everyone on the team hates him. The Head Coach is a moron and they’ll be looking for one as soon as they finish the regular season. But maybe they can set aside their differences for this game and move the ball on the world’s worst defense ever. So, it’s a good QB with no help against a dysfunctional organization and a diva QB trying to prove he’s the man against a Junior Varsity defense. You know what that means…

Pick: Over 38.5 Total Points

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7), O/U 38.5

Will Levis returns to the lineup for the Titans in this one, which means absolutely everything is on the table. I’m banking on this time off teaching him that giving the ball to the other team is a bad thing. The Titans still tout one of the better defenses in the league, and would have several more wins on the year if Levis wasn’t playing like a bonehead.

The Chargers have themselves in position to snag a wild card spot in the AFC, but they play a slow and steady brand of football that doesn’t really leave room for a blow out. Also, they’re suddenly without their starting linebackers, which may allow Tennessee to run the ball and not allow Levis to make the mistakes he’s dying to make. 

Pick: Tennessee +7

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys, O/U 43.5

As I’m writing this article on Friday afternoon, Philadelphia Head Dork Nick Sirianni just revealed that QB Jalen Hurts is dealing with an ankle injury that might hold him out of this game. On top of that, the Eagles record is inflated by playing teams like the Giants, Browns and Jaguars. They  struggled to win any of those games by margin.

Dak Prescott may not return this season for Dallas, but his backup Cooper Rush is 5-1 in his career as a starting quarterback. Plus, it appears Ceedee Lamb and Micah Parsons will be in uniform for this one. Even if they don’t pull the upset against a hobbled Jalen Hurts or terrible Kenny Pickett, I think this will be a close game.

Pick: Dallas +7.5

New York Jets (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals, O/U 46.5

The Jets offense has clicked over the last few weeks, and this Arizona defense is a step down in class compared to some of their most recent matchups. I’m expecting a big game out of Aaron Rodgers and company, but their lack in coaching and defense doesn’t guarantee me that they’ll win the game.

Arizona has more size on offense than they’ve ever had. They’ve been using it to bully people on the ground running the ball with James Conner, while Kyler Murray picks apart people in the passing game when he needs to. So, I believe both offenses will be put into a situation where they’ll succeed in this one. You know what that means…

Pick: Over 46.5 Total Points

And if you like any of my picks, lock them in with the widgets below each section!