Hot Garbage

Does it really make sense that a 14-3 team is the No. 5 seed, below two 10-win teams? Answer? No, it doesn’t make sense, but until the NFL goes the way of the NBA, this is the seeding system we have to live with. (We are referring to the 14-3 Vikings, btw).

OK, rant done. Let’s talk playoff betting. It’s Super Wild Card Weekend — 12 teams playing in six games, with No. 1 seeds Chiefs and Lions getting the week off. We’ve got probable future Hall of Fame QBs (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson) and two rookie QBs (Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels) in action. We’ve got the NFL’s top two RBs (Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry) in action.

Chargers at Texans, 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud and the No. 4-seeded Texans have been underwhelming. Stroud has 20 touchdown passes against 12 interceptions, compared to 23-5 in his rookie season. Houston won the crappy AFC South but was 1-5 against playoff teams.

The Chargers and first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh weren’t much better against playoff teams with a 2-5 record (both wins coming vs Denver). QB Justin Herbert had 23 TDs to 3 INTs but has been sacked 41 times. After scoring 17 points in three straight games, the LAC offense averaged 36.0 points in roaring into the playoffs with a three-game win streak to end the regular season.

As much as we love the Harbaugh gung-ho style, Houston HC DeMeco Ryans can match him emotion for emotion. Plus, Stroud and the Texans looked great last year in the WC against the Browns. And we still remember the LAC meltdown against Jax a couple of years ago.

Pick: Texans +3

Steelers at Ravens, 8 p.m. ET Saturday

When Russell Wilson watches from the sideline on Saturday, he will see what he once was — an elusive quarterback who extends plays and fires laser strikes with a rocket arm. That would be 2-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who burns with a desire to show that he can excel as much in the playoffs as during the regular season.

After winning six of his first seven games after taking over from Justin Fields as the starter, Wilson has looked washed. He led the Steelers to only 57 points in a four-game losing streak to end the regular season, with only 4 TD passes and 2 INTs. He’s also been sacked 3 times a game on average.

With Ravens WR Zay Flowers out with a knee injury, Baltimore’s task will be a bit tougher, but it’s hard to imagine Jackson and coach John Harbaugh losing at home three weeks after blowing out the Steelers. Wilson could conjure up his playoff moxie (a 9-7 record) to keep this game somewhat close, but … nah.

Pick: Ravens -9.5

Broncos at Bills, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

This could be the biggest blowout of the weekend, but only if rookie Bo Nix and the Broncos go into Buffalo with massive jitters. That could happen, though, with Denver in its first playoff game since Peyton Manning and Von Miller led the team to the Super Bowl title in 2016.

Denver has the seventh-ranked defense in the NFL, but Allen has led the Bills to 30 or more points 12 times this season. Buffalo’s pass defense gave up the ninth-most yards this season, so if Denver HC Sean Payton dials up a solid game plan and Nix executes it, this game could stay somewhat close at least until the third quarter.

The Bills haven’t lost in the wild card round since 2019.

Pick: Over 47.5 points

Packers at Eagles, 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday

Philly has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and is ranked No. 2 in rushing, led by league-leading rusher Saquon Barkley (2,005 yards). Jalen Hurts has thrown one INT since Sept. 22 but is coming off a concussion he sustained Dec. 22. So, he hasn’t played a full game since Dec. 15 and could be rusty.

Philly also has the NFL’s No. 2 defense, but Green Bay QB Jordan Love hasn’t thrown an INT since before Thanksgiving and can be great when he gets on a hot streak. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 1,329 yards in the regular season and could help Green Bay control the tempo of the game.

One interesting X-factor could be the cold. The forecast is calling for a high of 39 degrees, and in his career Hurts has completed only 55 percent of his passes, with 4 TDs and 9 INTs when it’s less than 40 degrees. Love’s numbers are 67 percent, 10 TDs, 2 INTs.

It gives us pause that the Packers got swept by the Lions and Vikings in four games, but those losses were by a combined 17 points. Plus, two of them came in December, and those could serve as nice primers for Sunday’s tough matchup in Philly. We are also concerned with Hurts coming off a concussion. We are also reminded of the beatdown the Packers delivered in Dallas in SWC weekend last year. This game could be closer than the records would indicate.

Pick: Packers +5

Commanders at Buccaneers, 8 p.m. ET Sunday

Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels is on a frickin’ tear, with 18 TD passes and only 4 INTs in his past five games, including a 5-burger against the Eagles. He’s apparently got clutch DNA: a 65% completion percentage with 5 TDs (1 INT) in the fourth quarter of close games, and 69%/15/3 in wins of 7 points or less.

But on the other sideline, Baker Mayfield also comes in on a heater. He’s led TB to 6 wins in 7 games and has thrown 17 TD passes and 7 INTs in that stretch. This could be the funnest game of the six.

Pick: Commanders moneyline

Vikings at Rams, 8 p.m. ET Monday

This is NOT the scenario Minnesota fans were hoping for — losing the Week 18 showdown in Detroit, then dropping to the 5 seed and having to beat Matthew Stafford in LA.

It doesn’t help that Vikings QB Sam Darnold stunk against the Lions, while the LAR have won five straight and have given up 14 points or less in four of those games. Plus, the massive road win against the Bills was a huge statement.

Meanwhile, the Vikings’ only wins over playoff teams were a pair of 2-point victories over Green Bay and a blowout of the Texans. Plus, they did lose at LA earlier this season.

Sean McVay seems like a seasoned NFL coach at this point, but he’s actually only 38 and has taken LAR to two Super Bowls. He’s finally out from under the Kyle Shanahan shadow and is proving to be one of the NFL’s best.

Pick: Rams +1 and moneyline

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