Fun Fact: London is not foggy. It only got that reputation because early 20th-century factories created heavy air pollution that left the city covered in a thick, sooty shroud. What is foggy, however, is exactly how the transatlantic flight will impact the undefeated Vikings and the middling Jets as they face off Sunday morning in the first European game of the NFL season. While American football has been traveling across the pond since 2007, it remains unclear how these international games will affect the teams involved and whether the momentum—which the 4-0 Vikings have and the 2-2 Jets very much do not—will carry over across international waters.

The Jets are one week removed from playing and losing one of the worst football games ever witnessed by God or man. In that game, they lost 10-9 to the Denver Broncos at home and scored exactly zero touchdowns. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Jets, who were starting to think positive thoughts after beating the absolute daylights out of the Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. In that game, the Jets’ offense looked crisp, Aaron Rodgers seemed to have turned back the clock on his 40-year-old body, and the defense was dominant at all three levels. What transpired a week later was almost the exact opposite. In a driving rainstorm, the Jets reverted back to their old habits of sucking at football. Aaron Rodgers looked creaky and slow. The offensive line was consistently on their heels, and while the defense allowed only one offensive touchdown, they once again had trouble stopping the run in the 4th quarter. Facing a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, who is simply not good at his job and threw for a whopping 60 yards during the game, the Jets failed to force the Broncos to throw the ball when it mattered most, and they paid dearly for it. Despite all that, they had a chance to win. With only a few seconds left on the game clock, Greg Zuerlein lined up for a 50-yard field goal and proceeded to shank it a mile wide to the left. It’s hard to fathom the despair that Jets fans who made the trip out to the swampland in East Rutherford, New Jersey, felt as Zuerlein’s kick went awry in those final seconds, but at the end of the day, that is the risk you run when you spend any time or money to watch the New York Jets play in person.

Because the Jets are now 2-2 instead of 3-1, like they should be, one might consider this game in London a pivotal moment in their season. Falling below .500 at this point in the year will make a playoff push that much more difficult, especially because the schedule does not get any easier over the next several weeks. They’ll go from facing an undefeated Vikings team in Week 5 to a Monday night matchup with the division-leading Bills in Week 6, followed by a Sunday night game with the surging Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7. It is not impossible to envision the Jets as a 2-5 football team after that stretch if they don’t right the ship. Urgency will be at an all-time high when the ball is kicked off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday morning.

On the other side is a familiar face. The NFL’s best team is now quarterbacked by Sam Darnold, which is something that Jets fans dreamed about when he was drafted 3rd overall by Gang Green in 2018, but the hope was that he would be doing it for them and not the opposition. Like many who have escaped the unfriendly confines of MetLife Stadium, Darnold seems like a completely different player since donning the Viking purple and ascending to the starting job in the wake of a season-ending injury to projected starter JJ McCarthy in the preseason. Darnold and the Vikings have been one of the great surprises of the NFL season, and their spotless record has not come by beating up the dregs of the league, either. After defeating a below-average Giants team by three touchdowns in Week 1, they rattled off a trio of victories against the Texans, 49ers, and Packers—all teams with very realistic playoff aspirations. The Vikings have been twice as good as the Jets at moving the ball this year and rank 11th in the NFL in total offense (the Jets are 22nd). They feature arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson and a formidable number two in Jordan Addison, who is finally healthy and starting to put up big numbers. They also upgraded at the running back position this season, adding former division rival Aaron Jones, who is just as much of a weapon catching the football as he is running it. The only question for the Vikings, who seem to be overshooting all of the projections this year, is whether they’ve peaked or if they are truly one of the NFL’s best teams and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Taking down a desperate Jets team will go a long way in proving to the doubters that they are no flash in the pan.

The Bet I Like the Most

Most football bettors will try to find any trend that allows them to place their wagers with more confidence. When it comes to these London games, the most common refrain you’ll hear is that offenses will be rusty and teams will have a tough time adjusting to the time zone change and the terrible British food, and therefore betting the under is the savvy play. While it sounds good in theory, bookmakers take this into account, and there is no discernible trend that proves this is the case. Unders are hitting at just 51.5% all-time in London games. A trend that is clear, however, is that favorites have been dominant. Taking the favorite on the money line has generated a winning ticket 65% of the time (21-11-1), and I don’t expect that to change this week. Take the Vikings and ride the hot hand.

A Bet for Jets Fans

One thing that was glaringly evident last week against the Broncos is that Breece Hall is not a short-yardage back. For all his dynamism and talent, he is much better outside the tackles than trying to force the ball inside for a couple of yards against a stacked box. Hall was stuffed on more than one occasion on the goal line in Week 4, and the postgame talking heads were lamenting the decision to hand Hall the ball instead of bruising rookie Braelon Allen. I may have too much faith in either Robert Saleh or Nathaniel Hackett to learn from their mistakes, but I am willing to bet on at least a few goal-line handoffs to the 240 lb back if given the opportunity. Take Allen to score.

A Bet for Vikings Fans

One thing that has been consistent this year for the Jets is their inability to stop the run. Outside of what looks like an outlier performance against a hopeless Patriots team, the Jets have been abysmal at keeping opposing backs from gashing them for big yards. Aaron Jones has been one of the best running backs in football this year, and the Vikings are not shy about handing him the rock. He is averaging 16 attempts per game and over 80 yards on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Jets are the 2nd best passing defense in the NFL, I think this becomes a game that is heavily dependent on the running game. I think he clears his 64.5 over easily and likely before the third quarter.