Last week— not our best! We finished 2-3 and went 0-2 in bonus picks. The story of the last few weeks has been the public making a killing. Hoping we can rejoin them this week and get back to our winning ways.

CIN +6.5 @ BAL

A Thursday night special here! In past years this would be an auto play to fire in the Bengals and not think too much about it. A ton of points, division dog, short week. There is definitely room to pause here, mainly because Baltimore is terrifying and most likely no Tee Higgins.The Bengals D still stinks. I just think this is too many points vs a bad Baltimore defense in a spot Lamar doesn’t typically cover. Given the Ravens’ defense, hopefully the back door will always be open (unless they win by 100 like last week). Burrow is playing at an MVP level and the Bengals are the more desperate team. Give me Cin +6.5

BUF -3.5 @ IND

On the opposite end of the spectrum, if this were previous years, I’d very clearly be on the wrong side here (and still may be). This line movement is indicating sharp money on Ind, but nothing has changed for me after losing on the Bills last week. The Dolphins moved the ball better than I expected, but do we think the Colts’ offense will do the same? The Vikings defense is and was good last week but I’m pretty sure the Colts didn’t make it into the red zone last Sunday. I still think the Bills are the far superior team and have the ability to blow teams out. BUF -3.5

SF -5.5 @ TB

I put this in before the MNF game at 6.5 expecting the Bucs to look bad and fearing this could go up to 7. The Bucs looked far better than I expected and Baker has been extremely impressive all year. I just feel like I’ve seen this 49ers story before. Banged up, people down on them, go into the bye, get healthy, destroy teams. I fully expect a rested 49ers team to have a huge game vs an injured Tampa team. My only hesitation is that Liam Coen seems to be doing a great job with the Bucs offense, and they play tough. I’m still expecting a vintage 49ers game -SF -5.5 and if you’re feeling crazy some alt lines to get + money is in play.

PIT +3 @ WAS

Tomlin spot. 61% as a dog on the road, 25-5 straight up against rookie QBs. There’s definitely sharp money coming in on Washington, but I really pray that they have to regress and have to stop covering every game. Washington got a bit lucky to cover for us vs the Giants last week, and the Steelers D and team overall should be healthier and rested out of the bye. Let’s cross our fingers and hope it’s the right time to fade Washington. Pit +3.

Jets -.5 @ ARI

I shouldn’t do this to myself or anybody else. I won’t make you read my reasoning for taking the Jets here. I’m more so not believing in the Cardinals and think it’s time to sell on the Cards. Ari has a great run game which is the Jets’ weakness and my biggest hesitation. My short reasoning is that I think the Jets should be able to put up enough points vs a team I don’t believe in. Thinking NY can get the W here. Jets -.5 (ML).

Other picks I’ve taken:

Lions -3.5, Falcons -3 (both feel like sucker bets). Ten I have in at +8.5

Good luck out there and let’s make some monayyy.