Before Josh Allen, I watched football for my fantasy team. I suffered through JP Losman, Trent Edwards, EJ Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Kevin Kolb, NATE PETERMAN… I could go on for hours. And with Josh Allen, I’ve suffered different scars and traumatic football moments, but they have not come against the Miami Dolphins. Despite how much their fanbase will puff out their chest online, Josh Allen is the Dolphins’ daddy.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), O/U 48.5

Why are the Dolphins favored? Can anyone tell me? Josh Allen is 11-2 straight up against the Dolphins in his career with 42 total touchdowns in those matchups. To put that in perspective, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has never thrown more than 29 touchdowns in a season.

But what about the two losses? The first was in Allen’s rookie season for the at-the-time 4-8 Buffalo Bills with a receiving core of Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin, and Robert Foster. The second loss was in 2021 when half of the Bills personnel crumbled to the ground because they were roasting in direct sunlight on the Miami sideline. There was a 25-degree difference between the Bills sideline and the Dolphins sideline in that game.

By my calculation, this game that kicks off at 8:15 pm ET will be after sunset. Josh Allen will continue to own Miami, and the sun can’t save them now. And if you agree with my pick, lock it in with the Tallysight widget below.

Pick: Buffalo Bills Moneyline, Under 48.5

Who’s the Receiver to Trust in Buffalo?

All of them, kinda. By the end of the year, I think Keon Coleman will separate himself as the clear number-one option in the passing game. Khalil Shakir will be the strategic route-runner with the most familiarity that Allen finds on broken plays and clutch moments. And Mack Hollins is in town to block on run plays and run deep in a straight line. But, at the end of the day, the offense will run through the tight ends.

As for this week, there’s only one starting wide receiver with a receiving prop in the 20s, while the others are in the 40s. Give me Mack Hollins to go over 21.5 receiving yards as Allen continues to spread the ball around the entire offense. He can go over this number in one catch or three catches will be on the field in both two and three wide receiver sets. Hollins also ran the second most routes for Buffalo in week one. He’s not the number one, but he’s good for 25 – 30 yards if the Bills need to air it out.

Pick: Mack Hollins Over 21.5 Receiving Yards