Welcome back to Week 4 of our Stinkiest Line picks. We’re coming off a 3-2 week and it turns out betting on Skylar Thompson was not the move as Miami could not score points. We’ll take a 3-2 week though, and if you sprinkled in the Giants and Panthers ML, you’re welcome! Overall we were 7-3 ATS and we’ll be looking to replicate that this week. Below are the 5 smelliest lines I see this week and I’ll add in a few other picks ATS at the bottom of the article:

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Unfortunately I’m seeing -3 at most books here which makes this line even stinkier. Most of the bets seem to be coming in on the Rams which doesn’t surprise me. The Rams are coming off of a good win vs. San Francisco and the QB and coaching matchup scares the death out of me. Chicago can’t run the ball and seemed to try to lose vs Ind last week. However, getting Keenan back this week could be huge for a passing offense that looked a bit better last week, and the Rams had an estimated 95% chance of losing last week. The Bears D should show up at home, and hopefully the Chicago coaches can figure out how to come away with a field goal win at home against a very banged up Rams team. I’m banking on Keenan Allen playing and making a difference for this Bears offense.

Give me the Bears -2.5 (don’t love it at 3 but would still take the chance).

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Man is this brutal. Under a TD vs a Super Bowl contender on the road after getting absolutely embarrassed on national TV? This line stinks. I’m obviously concerned that the Jags have given up on Dougy P, but you have to play this spot every time. Football is a weird game and teams coming off a 35+ point loss with a spread over 4 is hitting at a 73% rate. CJ Stroud is awesome, but not as awesome vs man coverage which Josh Allen absolutely dices up. There is no way anybody would feel comfortable betting on the Jags here, which is exactly why we have to take it.

I got this at +7 but still feel comfortable playing at +6.5.

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

All the money and tickets coming in on Pittsburgh and why would it not? Anthony Richardson has looked pretty terrible, and the Steelers D is absolutely frightening, especially against a mistake prone QB. The Steelers are currently #11 in luck rankings and the Colts have been the second unluckiest team. Najee seems to always find a way to play, but the Steelers RB’s are clearly banged up. I hope that Richardson can avoid the key crucial mistakes and Pittsburgh will struggle on offense.

Give me the Colts +1.5 and I’m sprinkling some colts money line in as well.

San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

This line has also moved a bit, but on the surface Patrick Mahomes only -7 vs potentially a backup QB reeks. Mahomes hasn’t been great with these huge spreads, and although KC is 3-0, their offense hasn’t been humming. Even if Herbert doesn’t play, I expect Taylor Heinicke to be serviceable enough (LOL) to put up a few touchdowns and cover a big spread at home. Coaching should be able to get the Chargers up for this game, muck it up, and make an ugly divisional game low scoring enough to cover 7 points. Let’s hope Travis Kelce doesn’t go for 8-110-2!

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

I just don’t learn after taking the Texans in Minnesota last week do I? Obviously everyone and their mother will see potentially the best team in football getting points and want to take them. Well, I’m falling for it too. Again, like last week in Minnesota I know I’m on the wrong side here but the Ravens just haven’t looked good enough to me on defense to warrant this spread. This is a spot Lamar seems to always cover, so really I don’t have a ton of analysis besides the fact that I think the Bills are firing on all cylinders and hoping the books just got the favorite wrong here.

I’m playing the Bills at +2.5 and put in Bills moneyline as soon as that was up.

2 other pics I’m playing for fun.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers

I’m sure this will be the public side but I’m backing a desperate team to finally put together a complete game and maybe stop Andy Dalton 1 or 2 times to cover this spread.

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Seattle could lose me a lot of money this year because I’m not buying it, especially on the road. I don’t love the 3.5 but whatever, I’ll play the public side here and back Detroit at home.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week!