The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a thorn in the side of the Buffalo Bills over the last few years. Last season, they lost 25-20 in Week 4 to Jacksonville after putting up 37+ points in each of their first three games. They also lost Matt Milano for the season in that game. In 2021, Week 8 the 5-2 Bills traveled to Jacksonville to play the 1-6 Jaguars. They lost that game 6-9 (nice). In the 2017-18 playoffs, right after the Bills ended their 17-year playoff drought, they went to Jacksonville and lost a disgusting 10-3 game to the Jags. However, none of these games took place in Buffalo.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5), O/U 45.5

The Bills will avenge those nasty contests they’ve played away from home against the Jaguars. The Jags offense has looked broken through the season’s first two weeks. The last time Trevor Lawrence started and won an NFL game was Thanksgiving weekend. Well, buddy, it’s fall again, and Trevor’s got the Jaguars at an 0-2 record, while Doug Pederson’s seat gets warmer and warmer.

Many people are hand-wringing over the defensive injuries that the Bills have dealt with so far this season. But the Jaguars lack a functional offense, so even a shell of the Bills’ defense will be able to keep them in check. On top of that, this Buffalo secondary has been performing at a high caliber, allowing 69 (nice) total yards from stud receivers Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Marvin Harrison Jr. They’ll be able to hold their own while the offense continues to develop. They’re running the ball way more and still have put up over 30+ points in each of their first two contests so far this season. The expanded run game has also allowed Josh Allen to minimize his turnovers. He’s thrown 0 INTs for the first time since 2020.

Pick: Buffalo -5.5

How Will Buffalo Score?

I spend most of these prop sections with the Bills trying to guess which receiver will see some usage in their respective games. The truth is, Allen is going to spread the ball around, and the run game has been so dominating that before the true timeshare is revealed, the game is already over. Trying to nail down the top receiving option on this team is a fool’s errand at this point.

But, out of the wide receivers that get the most work, Keon Coleman seems to be the best deal to score a touchdown. They made a concerted effort all preseason to get him some looks in the red zone, and he’s already flashed great contested catch capability. I think they use this soft defense to give Coleman the opportunity to score his first big league touchdown. 

Pick: Keon Coleman Anytime Touchdown