After another brilliant game from Tyrese Halliburton (22 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists) and Pascal Siakam (21 points), it’s pretty safe to say, these NBA Finals are over. Aside from the fact that OKC’s defense can’t get enough stops and that Indy is 29-9 since March 11, the main indicator is history: he who wins Game 3 very mostly wins the title.

According to NBA historical data, when the Finals series is tied at 1-1, the team that wins Game 3 has gone on to win the championship 33 out of 41 times. That’s an impressive 80.5% success rate. This statistic underscores the psychological and tactical weight that Game 3 carries. Winning this game doesn’t just offer a numerical advantage in a best-of-seven format; it delivers a major confidence boost while placing pressure squarely on the opposition.

There are multiple reasons why Game 3 is so impactful. First, it’s typically the first game played in the lower-seeded team’s home arena. A win here can serve as a massive shift in momentum and crowd energy. It also allows the winning team to take control of the series rhythm. Coaches can make critical adjustments after the first two games, and executing them effectively in Game 3 can set the tone for the remainder of the series.

Over the years, numerous NBA champions have ridden the wave of a Game 3 victory to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The 2012 Miami Heat, led by LeBron James, took control of their Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder with a Game 3 win and never looked back. More recently, the 2022 Golden State Warriors, after splitting the first two games with the Boston Celtics, dropped Game 3—but then won the next three. While this bucks the trend, it illustrates how rare such comebacks can be when Game 3 is lost.

The pattern continued to show its weight in the 2025 NBA Finals, where the Indiana Pacers defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 116-107 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. Given the 80.5% historical precedent, this win places the Pacers in a commanding position, at least from a statistical and psychological standpoint. While history doesn’t guarantee future results, it undeniably favors teams that seize Game 3 when the series is even.

This trend also speaks volumes about the mental aspect of professional basketball. Teams that emerge victorious in Game 3 often display resilience, preparation, and composure under pressure—all championship traits. Conversely, losing Game 3 in a tied series often forces the trailing team into desperation mode, leading to strategic missteps or emotional unraveling.

In conclusion, while every Finals matchup brings its unique storylines and challenges, the data doesn’t lie: Game 3 is a turning point. Teams that capture it in a 1-1 series don’t just take the lead—they gain a powerful psychological edge and a historically-backed path to the title. For fans, analysts, and players alike, watching how Game 3 unfolds may be the clearest preview of the champion to come.